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Pacers at Hornets

NBA · Friday, Apr 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final IND 108 – CHA 129
← NBA / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND24263226108
CHA38313129129
Team box
IND·CHA
43-93
field goals
46-96
15-36
3-pointers
24-49
7-10
free throws
13-15
45
rebounds
48
29
assists
31
12
turnovers
10
56
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND343072
Brandon MillerCHA302263
Kon KnueppelCHA302044
Miles BridgesCHA261961
LaMelo BallCHA301869
Quenton JacksonIND251635

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +27
IND +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 27 · IND 4lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 31%, CHA 69% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
CHA by 8.3
Expected score
CHA 118.1 – 109.8 IND
Expected total
227.8
PacersThe matchupHornets
+222Our fair odds−222
109.8Expected points118.1
−0.54Power rating+0.04
112.6Points / game116.2
120.7Allowed / game111.4
45.9FG%46.2
35.73P%37.9
41.7Rebounds / game46.2
18−58Season record41−36
3−7Last 107−3
Aaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Ivica Zubac · Jarace Walker
Johnny FurphyOut (5 each)Antonio Reeves · Grant Williams
Liam McNeeley · PJ Hall
Tidjane Salaun

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · CHA chance
Our model fair31.0%69.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+22231%————
CHACharlotte Hornets−22269%————
SpreadCHA by 8.3
INDIndiana Pacers+8.3our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets−8.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.8
Over227.8our total————
Under227.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 8.3 expected
Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 50 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 51 points: <1%
← IND wins byCHA wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more62%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more47%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.8 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GKobe Brownstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·CHA
Apr 1 at CHI
last game
Apr 2 vs PHX
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 3, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · cervical; strainOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · cervical and lumbar; sorenessOut
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJarace Walker · lower back; bruiseOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right knee; acl tearOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDObi Toppin · right foot; injury managementProbable
INDPascal Siakam · right knee; injury managementProbable
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; injury managementOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · right ankle; fractureOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAMoussa Diabate · left ankle; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
IND·CHA
−0.54
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
112.6
points / game
116.2
120.7
points allowed / game
111.4
18−58
season record
41−36
11−27
home record
20−19
7−31
away record
21−17
W2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
7−3
45.9
FG%
46.2
35.7
3P%
37.9
41.7
rebounds / game
46.2
27.5
assists / game
26.4
14.4
turnovers / game
15.5
46.1
points in paint / game
45.5

Rating Trend

IND · CHA · 150 days
Indiana PacersCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 5−5
Feb 26at INDCHA 133 − 109
Jan 8at CHAIND 114 − 112
Nov 19, 2025at INDIND 127 − 118
Apr 2, 2025at INDIND 119 − 105
Dec 8, 2024at INDCHA 113 − 109
Nov 8, 2024at CHACHA 103 − 83
Feb 12, 2024at CHACHA 111 − 102
Feb 4, 2024at CHAIND 115 − 99
Dec 20, 2023at INDIND 144 − 113
Nov 4, 2023at INDCHA 125 − 124

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 1at CHI145 − 126W
Mar 29vs MIA135 − 118W
Mar 27vs LAC113 − 114L
Mar 25vs LAL130 − 137L
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L
Mar 15at MIL123 − 134L
Mar 13vs NY92 − 101L

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 2vs PHX127 − 107W
Mar 31at BKN117 − 86W
Mar 29vs BOS99 − 114L
Mar 28vs PHI114 − 118L
Mar 26vs NY114 − 103W
Mar 24vs SAC134 − 90W
Mar 21vs MEM124 − 101W
Mar 19vs ORL130 − 111W
Mar 17vs MIA136 − 106W
Mar 14at SA102 − 115L