bayesRatings

Suns at Hornets

NBA · Thursday, Apr 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final PHX 107 – CHA 127
← NBA / Apr 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX41192720107
CHA33333625127
Team box
PHX·CHA
42-91
field goals
48-93
16-39
3-pointers
18-49
7-10
free throws
13-15
31
rebounds
47
22
assists
27
12
turnovers
13
40
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen GreenPHX342547
Miles BridgesCHA272542
Devin BookerPHX362256
Kon KnueppelCHA332032
Coby WhiteCHA201943
Brandon MillerCHA311744

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +21
PHX +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 21 · PHX 10lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 46%, CHA 54% · Updated Apr 2

Expected margin
CHA by 2.8
Expected score
CHA 111.4 – 108.5 PHX
Expected total
219.9
SunsThe matchupHornets
+115Our fair odds−115
108.5Expected points111.4
+0.12Power rating+0.04
112.9Points / game116.1
111.1Allowed / game111.4
45.6FG%46.1
36.03P%37.9
43.2Rebounds / game46.2
42−34Season record40−36
3−7Last 107−3
Amir Coffey · Haywood HighsmithOutAntonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · CHA chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+11546%————
CHACharlotte Hornets−11554%————
SpreadCHA by 2.8
PHXPhoenix Suns+2.8our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets−2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 219.9
Over219.9our total————
Under219.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 2.8 expected
Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%
← PHX wins byCHA wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more48%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more33%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

219.9 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 209.570%
Total over 219.550%
Total over 229.531%
Total from 210 to 22939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·CHA
Mar 31 at ORL
last game
Mar 31 at BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 2, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXAmir Coffey · left ankle; sprainOut
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionQuestionable
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · right ankle; sorenessOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
PHX·CHA
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
112.9
points / game
116.1
111.1
points allowed / game
111.4
42−34
season record
40−36
24−15
home record
19−19
18−19
away record
21−17
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
7−3
45.6
FG%
46.1
36.0
3P%
37.9
43.2
rebounds / game
46.2
25.0
assists / game
26.4
14.4
turnovers / game
15.5
42.9
points in paint / game
45.4

Rating Trend

PHX · CHA · 149 days
Phoenix SunsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHA 1−8
Mar 8at PHXPHX 111 − 99
Jan 12, 2025at PHXPHX 120 − 113
Jan 7, 2025at CHACHA 115 − 104
Mar 15, 2024at CHAPHX 107 − 96
Dec 29, 2023at PHXPHX 133 − 119
Mar 1, 2023at CHAPHX 105 − 91
Jan 24, 2023at PHXPHX 128 − 97
Jan 2, 2022at CHAPHX 133 − 99
Dec 19, 2021at PHXPHX 137 − 106

PHX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Mar 31at ORL111 − 115L
Mar 30at MEM131 − 105W
Mar 28vs UTAH134 − 109W
Mar 24vs DEN123 − 125L
Mar 22vs TOR120 − 98W
Mar 21vs MIL105 − 108L
Mar 19at SA100 − 101L
Mar 17at MIN104 − 116L
Mar 16at BOS112 − 120L
Mar 13at TOR115 − 122L

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Mar 31at BKN117 − 86W
Mar 29vs BOS99 − 114L
Mar 28vs PHI114 − 118L
Mar 26vs NY114 − 103W
Mar 24vs SAC134 − 90W
Mar 21vs MEM124 − 101W
Mar 19vs ORL130 − 111W
Mar 17vs MIA136 − 106W
Mar 14at SA102 − 115L
Mar 11at SAC117 − 109W