bayesRatings

Hornets at Nets

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final CHA 117 – BKN 86
← NBA / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA35233128117
BKN1827182386
Team box
CHA·BKN
41-87
field goals
28-73
12-39
3-pointers
7-35
23-25
free throws
23-27
47
rebounds
30
28
assists
14
13
turnovers
16
52
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA292513
Miles BridgesCHA241952
Coby WhiteCHA211625
LaMelo BallCHA281479
Josh MinottBKN231420
Chaney JohnsonBKN271140

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +35
CHA +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 1 · CHA 35lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 70%, BKN 30% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
CHA by 7.2
Expected score
CHA 111.8 – 104.7 BKN
Expected total
216.5
HornetsThe matchupNets
−232Our fair odds+232
111.8Expected points104.7
+0.04Power rating−1.03
116.1Points / game106.3
111.7Allowed / game115.4
46.1FG%44.4
38.03P%34.3
46.2Rebounds / game39.7
39−36Season record18−57
7−3Last 101−9
Liam McNeeley · PJ Hall
Tidjane Salaun · Tosan EvbuomwanOutDanny Wolf · Day'Ron Sharpe
Egor Demin · Michael Porter Jr.
Terance Mann

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · BKN chance
Our model fair69.8%30.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets−23270%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+23230%————
SpreadCHA by 7.2
CHACharlotte Hornets−7.2our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 216.5
Over216.5our total————
Under216.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 7.2 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%
← CHA wins byBKN wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more60%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more44%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

216.5 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 206.569%
Total over 216.549%
Total over 226.530%
Total from 207 to 22639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GDrake Powellstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FZiaire Williamsstarted
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·BKN
Mar 29 vs BOS
last game
Mar 29 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 30, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut
Brooklyn Nets
BKNDanny Wolf · left ankle; sprainOut
BKNDay'Ron Sharpe · left thumb; surgeryOut
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia; injury managementOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · left hamstring; strainOut
BKNTerance Mann · left achilles; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
CHA·BKN
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−1.03
116.1
points / game
106.3
111.7
points allowed / game
115.4
39−36
season record
18−57
19−19
home record
10−26
20−17
away record
8−31
L2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
1−9
46.1
FG%
44.4
38.0
3P%
34.3
46.2
rebounds / game
39.7
26.3
assists / game
25.3
15.5
turnovers / game
15.9
45.4
points in paint / game
44.0

Rating Trend

CHA · BKN · 147 days
Charlotte HornetsBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BKN 6−4
Dec 1, 2025at BKNBKN 116 − 103
Oct 22, 2025at CHACHA 136 − 117
Mar 8, 2025at CHACHA 105 − 102
Feb 10, 2025at BKNBKN 97 − 89
Jan 29, 2025at CHABKN 104 − 83
Nov 19, 2024at BKNBKN 116 − 115
Mar 9, 2024at CHACHA 110 − 99
Nov 30, 2023at BKNCHA 129 − 128
Oct 30, 2023at CHABKN 133 − 121
Mar 5, 2023at BKNBKN 102 − 86

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Mar 29vs BOS99 − 114L
Mar 28vs PHI114 − 118L
Mar 26vs NY114 − 103W
Mar 24vs SAC134 − 90W
Mar 21vs MEM124 − 101W
Mar 19vs ORL130 − 111W
Mar 17vs MIA136 − 106W
Mar 14at SA102 − 115L
Mar 11at SAC117 − 109W
Mar 10at POR103 − 101W

BKN · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Mar 29vs SAC116 − 99W
Mar 27at LAL99 − 116L
Mar 25at GS106 − 109L
Mar 23at POR99 − 134L
Mar 22at SAC122 − 126L
Mar 20vs NY92 − 93L
Mar 18vs OKC92 − 121L
Mar 16vs POR95 − 114L
Mar 14at PHI97 − 104L
Mar 12at ATL97 − 108L