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Cavaliers at Warriors

NBA · Thursday, Apr 2 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final CLE 118 – GS 111
← NBA / Apr 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE30243034118
GS26213331111
Team box
CLE·GS
42-82
field goals
41-94
16-36
3-pointers
12-44
18-26
free throws
17-20
46
rebounds
46
28
assists
25
15
turnovers
12
48
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE342563
Brandin PodziemskiGS352544
Gui SantosGS312544
Max StrusCLE282452
James HardenCLE371925
Jarrett AllenCLE2416130

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +13
CLE +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 4 · CLE 13lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 57%, GS 43% · Updated Apr 2

Expected margin
CLE by 3.6
Expected score
CLE 118.0 – 114.5 GS
Expected total
232.5
CavaliersThe matchupWarriors
−135Our fair odds+135
118.0Expected points114.5
+0.59Power rating+0.06
119.3Points / game114.9
115.3Allowed / game115.1
48.1FG%46.2
36.13P%35.5
44.2Rebounds / game42.6
47−29Season record36−40
7−3Last 104−6
Dean Wade · Jaylon Tyson
Olivier Sarr · Riley Minix
Tristan EnarunaOut (5 each)Al Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Moses Moody · Quinten Post
Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · GS chance
Our model fair57.4%42.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−13557%————
GSGolden State Warriors+13543%————
SpreadCLE by 3.6
CLECleveland Cavaliers−3.6our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors+3.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.5
Over232.5our total————
Under232.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 3.6 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%
← CLE wins byGS wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more50%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more35%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.5 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GMax Strusstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·GS
Mar 31 at LAL
last game
Apr 1 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 2, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDean Wade · right ankle; sprainOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · left great toe; bone bruiseOut
CLEOlivier Sarr · g league - two-wayOut
CLERiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
CLETristan Enaruna · g league - two-wayOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · left patellar tendon; surgeryOut
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementOut
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left thumb; strainQuestionable
GSGui Santos · right pelvic; contusionQuestionable
GSSeth Curry · left adductor; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
CLE·GS
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
119.3
points / game
114.9
115.3
points allowed / game
115.1
47−29
season record
36−40
24−14
home record
21−16
23−15
away record
15−24
L1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
48.1
FG%
46.2
36.1
3P%
35.5
44.2
rebounds / game
42.6
28.3
assists / game
29.0
13.9
turnovers / game
15.8
51.6
points in paint / game
44.8

Rating Trend

CLE · GS · 149 days
Cleveland CavaliersGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · GS 5−4
Dec 6, 2025at CLEGS 99 − 94
Dec 30, 2024at GSCLE 113 − 95
Nov 8, 2024at CLECLE 136 − 117
Nov 11, 2023at GSCLE 118 − 110
Nov 5, 2023at CLECLE 115 − 104
Jan 20, 2023at CLEGS 120 − 114
Nov 11, 2022at GSGS 106 − 101
Jan 9, 2022at GSGS 96 − 82
Nov 18, 2021at CLEGS 104 − 89

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 31at LAL113 − 127L
Mar 30at UTAH122 − 113W
Mar 27vs MIA149 − 128W
Mar 25vs MIA103 − 120L
Mar 24vs ORL136 − 131W
Mar 21at NO111 − 106W
Mar 19at CHI115 − 110W
Mar 17at MIL123 − 116W
Mar 15vs DAL120 − 130L
Mar 13at DAL138 − 105W

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 1vs SA113 − 127L
Mar 29at DEN93 − 116L
Mar 27vs WSH131 − 126W
Mar 25vs BKN109 − 106W
Mar 23at DAL137 − 131W
Mar 21at ATL110 − 126L
Mar 20at DET101 − 115L
Mar 18at BOS99 − 120L
Mar 16at WSH125 − 117W
Mar 15at NY107 − 110L