bayesRatings

Trail Blazers at Nuggets

NBA · Monday, Apr 6 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final POR 132 – DEN 137
← NBA / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
POR353729247132
DEN3127293812137
Team box
POR·DEN
42-89
field goals
52-101
25-52
3-pointers
12-38
23-28
free throws
21-24
39
rebounds
45
29
assists
37
18
turnovers
12
32
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN43351413
Toumani CamaraPOR353050
Deni AvdijaPOR402647
Aaron GordonDEN312395
Jamal MurrayDEN382017
Jrue HolidayPOR3919611

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +18
POR +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DEN 7 · POR 18lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 31%, DEN 69% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
DEN by 5.9
Expected score
DEN 120.5 – 114.6 POR
Expected total
235.2
Trail BlazersThe matchupNuggets
+222Our fair odds−222
114.6Expected points120.5
−0.08Power rating+0.50
115.4Points / game121.6
115.9Allowed / game116.8
45.4FG%49.6
34.03P%39.5
46.1Rebounds / game43.6
40−38Season record50−28
8−2Last 109−1
Damian Lillard · Jerami Grant
Shaedon Sharpe · Vit KrejciOutPeyton Watson · Spencer Jones

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · DEN chance
Our model fair31.0%69.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+22231%————
DENDenver Nuggets−22269%————
SpreadDEN by 5.9
PORPortland Trail Blazers+5.9our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.2
Over235.2our total————
Under235.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 5.9 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%
← POR wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more56%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more41%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.2 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GScoot Hendersonstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·DEN
Apr 2 vs NO
last game
Apr 4 vs SA
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 6, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJerami Grant · right calf; strainOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
PORVit Krejci · left calf; contusionOut
Denver Nuggets
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENSpencer Jones · right hamstring; strainOut
DENZeke Nnaji · left hip; sprainQuestionable
DENBruce Brown · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
POR·DEN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.50
115.4
points / game
121.6
115.9
points allowed / game
116.8
40−38
season record
50−28
22−17
home record
25−13
18−21
away record
25−15
W3
streak
W8
8−2
last 10
9−1
45.4
FG%
49.6
34.0
3P%
39.5
46.1
rebounds / game
43.6
25.1
assists / game
28.8
17.4
turnovers / game
12.9
48.4
points in paint / game
49.0

Rating Trend

POR · DEN · 153 days
Portland Trail BlazersDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 7−3
Mar 22at DENDEN 128 − 112
Feb 20at PORDEN 157 − 103
Oct 31, 2025at PORPOR 109 − 107
Mar 21, 2025at PORPOR 128 − 109
Feb 12, 2025at DENDEN 132 − 121
Feb 10, 2025at DENDEN 146 − 117
Dec 19, 2024at PORPOR 126 − 124
Mar 23, 2024at PORDEN 114 − 111
Feb 23, 2024at PORDEN 127 − 112
Feb 4, 2024at DENDEN 112 − 103

POR · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Apr 2vs NO118 − 106W
Mar 31at LAC114 − 104W
Mar 29vs WSH123 − 88W
Mar 27vs DAL93 − 100L
Mar 25vs MIL130 − 99W
Mar 23vs BKN134 − 99W
Mar 22at DEN112 − 128L
Mar 20at MIN108 − 104W
Mar 18at IND127 − 119W
Mar 16at BKN114 − 95W

DEN · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Apr 4vs SA136 − 134W
Apr 1at UTAH130 − 117W
Mar 29vs GS116 − 93W
Mar 27vs UTAH135 − 129W
Mar 25vs DAL142 − 135W
Mar 24at PHX125 − 123W
Mar 22vs POR128 − 112W
Mar 20vs TOR121 − 115W
Mar 18at MEM118 − 125L
Mar 17vs PHI124 − 96W