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Pelicans at Trail Blazers

NBA · Thursday, Apr 2 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final NO 106 – POR 118
← NBA / Apr 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO32331625106
POR35252830118
Team box
NO·POR
38-84
field goals
42-92
9-23
3-pointers
20-51
21-26
free throws
14-18
44
rebounds
45
25
assists
27
19
turnovers
16
48
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jrue HolidayPOR372759
Deni AvdijaPOR372687
Toumani CamaraPOR392341
Jeremiah FearsNO262121
Trey Murphy IIINO361982
Saddiq BeyNO351561

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +12
NO +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 12 · NO 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 33%, POR 67% · Updated Apr 2

Expected margin
POR by 5.9
Expected score
POR 119.0 – 113.1 NO
Expected total
232.2
PelicansThe matchupTrail Blazers
+203Our fair odds−203
113.1Expected points119.0
−0.57Power rating−0.08
115.1Points / game115.3
119.5Allowed / game116.0
46.6FG%45.4
34.53P%34.0
43.8Rebounds / game46.1
25−51Season record39−38
4−6Last 107−3
Bryce McGowens · Karlo MatkovicOutDamian Lillard · Jerami Grant
Shaedon Sharpe · Vit Krejci

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · POR chance
Our model fair33.0%67.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+20333%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−20367%————
SpreadPOR by 5.9
NONew Orleans Pelicans+5.9our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 5.9 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%
← NO wins byPOR wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more56%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more41%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GScoot Hendersonstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·POR
Mar 29 vs HOU
last game
Mar 31 at LAC
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 2, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · low back; spasmsOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJerami Grant · right calf; strainOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
PORVit Krejci · left calf; contusionOut
PORHansen Yang · g league - on assignmentDoubtful
PORChris Youngblood · g league - two-wayQuestionable
PORJayson Kent · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
NO·POR
−0.57
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
115.1
points / game
115.3
119.5
points allowed / game
116.0
25−51
season record
39−38
16−23
home record
21−17
9−28
away record
18−21
L5
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
46.6
FG%
45.4
34.5
3P%
34.0
43.8
rebounds / game
46.1
25.2
assists / game
25.1
14.2
turnovers / game
17.4
57.4
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

NO · POR · 149 days
New Orleans PelicansPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 5−5
Jan 2at NOPOR 122 − 109
Dec 11, 2025at NONO 143 − 120
Nov 12, 2025at NOPOR 125 − 117
Jan 8, 2025at NOPOR 119 − 100
Nov 4, 2024at NOPOR 118 − 100
Oct 27, 2024at PORPOR 125 − 103
Oct 25, 2024at PORNO 105 − 103
Apr 9, 2024at PORNO 110 − 100
Mar 16, 2024at NONO 126 − 107
Feb 10, 2024at PORNO 93 − 84

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Mar 29vs HOU102 − 134L
Mar 27at TOR106 − 119L
Mar 26at DET108 − 129L
Mar 24at NY116 − 121L
Mar 21vs CLE106 − 111L
Mar 19vs LAC105 − 99W
Mar 18vs LAC124 − 109W
Mar 16vs DAL129 − 111W
Mar 13at HOU105 − 107L
Mar 11vs TOR122 − 111W

POR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 31at LAC114 − 104W
Mar 29vs WSH123 − 88W
Mar 27vs DAL93 − 100L
Mar 25vs MIL130 − 99W
Mar 23vs BKN134 − 99W
Mar 22at DEN112 − 128L
Mar 20at MIN108 − 104W
Mar 18at IND127 − 119W
Mar 16at BKN114 − 95W
Mar 15at PHI103 − 109L