bayesRatings

Jazz at Thunder

NBA · Sunday, Apr 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final UTAH 111 – OKC 146
← NBA / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH25292730111
OKC40353338146
Team box
UTAH·OKC
43-100
field goals
54-92
14-39
3-pointers
24-45
11-15
free throws
14-16
43
rebounds
46
29
assists
40
16
turnovers
16
46
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brice SensabaughUTAH433445
Chet HolmgrenOKC222171
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH3820146
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC242047
Svi MykhailiukUTAH231741
Cason WallaceOKC221651

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +43
UTAH +43
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 43 · UTAH 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 8%, OKC 92% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
OKC by 20.0
Expected score
OKC 128.0 – 108.0 UTAH
Expected total
236.0
JazzThe matchupThunder
+1228Our fair odds−1228
108.0Expected points128.0
−1.04Power rating+1.28
117.2Points / game118.9
125.6Allowed / game107.5
46.7FG%48.4
34.63P%36.0
43.6Rebounds / game44.2
21−57Season record61−16
1−9Last 109−1
Blake Hinson · Elijah Harkless
Isaiah Collier · Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jusuf NurkicOutThomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · OKC chance
Our model fair7.5%92.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+12288%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−122892%————
SpreadOKC by 20.0
UTAHUtah Jazz+20our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−20our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.0
Over236.0our total————
Under236.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 20.0 expected
Utah Jazz by 52 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 51 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 6 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 5 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more89%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more80%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more67%
Within 5 points either way10%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.0 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.529%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GAce Baileystarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted
COscar Tshiebwestarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·OKC
Apr 3 at HOU
last game
Apr 2 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 5, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHBlake Hinson · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHElijah Harkless · left hamstring; strainOut
UTAHIsaiah Collier · left hamstring; strainOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right hamstring; strainOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
UTAH·OKC
−1.04
rating (0 = average)
+1.28
117.2
points / game
118.9
125.6
points allowed / game
107.5
21−57
season record
61−16
13−27
home record
33−7
8−30
away record
28−9
L8
streak
W4
1−9
last 10
9−1
46.7
FG%
48.4
34.6
3P%
36.0
43.6
rebounds / game
44.2
29.4
assists / game
25.4
15.5
turnovers / game
12.6
52.1
points in paint / game
49.5

Rating Trend

UTAH · OKC · 152 days
Utah JazzOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 9−1
Jan 7at OKCOKC 129 − 125
Dec 7, 2025at UTAHOKC 131 − 101
Nov 21, 2025at UTAHOKC 144 − 112
Apr 11, 2025at UTAHOKC 145 − 111
Feb 21, 2025at UTAHOKC 130 − 107
Jan 22, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 114
Dec 3, 2024at OKCOKC 133 − 106
Mar 20, 2024at OKCOKC 119 − 107
Feb 6, 2024at UTAHUTAH 124 − 117
Jan 18, 2024at UTAHOKC 134 − 129

UTAH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Apr 3at HOU106 − 140L
Apr 1vs DEN117 − 130L
Mar 30vs CLE113 − 122L
Mar 28at PHX109 − 134L
Mar 27at DEN129 − 135L
Mar 25vs WSH110 − 133L
Mar 23vs TOR127 − 143L
Mar 21vs PHI116 − 126L
Mar 19vs MIL128 − 96W
Mar 18at MIN111 − 147L

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W4
Apr 2vs LAL139 − 96W
Mar 30vs DET114 − 110W
Mar 29vs NY111 − 100W
Mar 27vs CHI131 − 113W
Mar 25at BOS109 − 119L
Mar 23at PHI123 − 103W
Mar 21at WSH132 − 111W
Mar 18at BKN121 − 92W
Mar 17at ORL113 − 108W
Mar 15vs MIN116 − 103W