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Thunder at Lakers

NBA · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final OKC 123 – LAL 87
← NBA / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC34312830123
LAL2720152587
Team box
OKC·LAL
45-89
field goals
32-73
21-41
3-pointers
9-26
12-14
free throws
14-31
46
rebounds
38
29
assists
26
12
turnovers
17
40
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC282518
Isaiah JoeOKC181820
Chet HolmgrenOKC2215100
Rui HachimuraLAL261551
Jared McCainOKC161521
Drew TimmeLAL271132

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +41
OKC +41
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 0 · OKC 41lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 68%, LAL 32% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
OKC by 8.0
Expected score
OKC 117.6 – 109.6 LAL
Expected total
227.2
ThunderThe matchupLakers
−217Our fair odds+217
117.6Expected points109.6
+1.33Power rating+0.32
119.2Points / game116.7
107.5Allowed / game115.3
48.5FG%50.2
36.33P%35.7
44.2Rebounds / game41.1
62−16Season record50−28
9−1Last 107−3
Jalen Williams · Thomas SorberOutAustin Reaves · LeBron James
Luka Doncic · Marcus Smart

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · LAL chance
Our model fair68.5%31.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−21768%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+21732%————
SpreadOKC by 8.0
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+8our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.2
Over227.2our total————
Under227.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.0 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byLAL wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more63%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more46%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.2 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuke Kennardstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FDrew Timmestarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·LAL
Apr 5 vs UTAH
last game
Apr 5 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 7, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; injury managementOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAustin Reaves · left oblique; muscle strainOut
LALLeBron James · left foot; injury managementOut
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut
LALMarcus Smart · right ankle; contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
OKC·LAL
+1.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
119.2
points / game
116.7
107.5
points allowed / game
115.3
62−16
season record
50−28
34−7
home record
26−12
28−9
away record
24−16
W5
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
7−3
48.5
FG%
50.2
36.3
3P%
35.7
44.2
rebounds / game
41.1
25.6
assists / game
25.6
12.6
turnovers / game
14.4
49.4
points in paint / game
52.2

Rating Trend

OKC · LAL · 154 days
Oklahoma City ThunderLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 4−6
Apr 2at OKCOKC 139 − 96
Feb 9at LALOKC 119 − 110
Nov 12, 2025at OKCOKC 121 − 92
Apr 8, 2025at OKCOKC 136 − 120
Apr 6, 2025at OKCLAL 126 − 99
Nov 29, 2024at LALOKC 101 − 93
Mar 4, 2024at LALLAL 116 − 104
Jan 15, 2024at LALLAL 112 − 105
Dec 23, 2023at OKCLAL 129 − 120
Nov 30, 2023at OKCOKC 133 − 110

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Apr 5vs UTAH146 − 111W
Apr 2vs LAL139 − 96W
Mar 30vs DET114 − 110W
Mar 29vs NY111 − 100W
Mar 27vs CHI131 − 113W
Mar 25at BOS109 − 119L
Mar 23at PHI123 − 103W
Mar 21at WSH132 − 111W
Mar 18at BKN121 − 92W
Mar 17at ORL113 − 108W

LAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Apr 5at DAL128 − 134L
Apr 2at OKC96 − 139L
Mar 31vs CLE127 − 113W
Mar 30vs WSH120 − 101W
Mar 27vs BKN116 − 99W
Mar 25at IND137 − 130W
Mar 23at DET110 − 113L
Mar 21at ORL105 − 104W
Mar 19at MIA134 − 126W
Mar 18at HOU124 − 116W