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Lakers at Mavericks

NBA · Sunday, Apr 5 · 6:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final LAL 128 – DAL 134
← NBA / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL30313631128
DAL41264027134
Team box
LAL·DAL
47-91
field goals
46-88
8-27
3-pointers
14-32
26-33
free throws
28-36
49
rebounds
38
36
assists
27
12
turnovers
7
66
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL394589
LeBron JamesLAL3930915
Jaxson HayesLAL272342
Rui HachimuraLAL392171
Luke KennardLAL41151611
P.J. WashingtonDAL301560

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +22
LAL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 22 · LAL 1lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 66%, DAL 34% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
LAL by 4.9
Expected score
LAL 118.7 – 113.8 DAL
Expected total
232.4
LakersThe matchupMavericks
−191Our fair odds+191
118.7Expected points113.8
+0.36Power rating−0.51
116.5Points / game113.6
115.0Allowed / game119.3
50.1FG%46.8
35.83P%33.8
41.0Rebounds / game44.7
50−27Season record24−53
8−2Last 102−8
Austin Reaves · Luka Doncic
Marcus SmartOut (3 each)Caleb Martin · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · DAL chance
Our model fair65.6%34.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−19166%————
DALDallas Mavericks+19134%————
SpreadLAL by 4.9
LALLos Angeles Lakers−4.9our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.4
Over232.4our total————
Under232.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 4.9 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%
← LAL wins byDAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more54%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more38%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.4 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuke Kennardstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·DAL
Apr 2 at OKC
last game
Apr 3 vs ORL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 5, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAustin Reaves · left oblique; muscle strainOut
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut
LALMarcus Smart · right ankle; contusionOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia; strainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALTyler Smith · low back; spasmsQuestionable
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayProbable
DALMarvin Bagley III · left shoulder; impingementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
LAL·DAL
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.51
116.5
points / game
113.6
115.0
points allowed / game
119.3
50−27
season record
24−53
26−12
home record
14−25
24−15
away record
10−28
L1
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
2−8
50.1
FG%
46.8
35.8
3P%
33.8
41.0
rebounds / game
44.7
25.4
assists / game
25.2
14.4
turnovers / game
14.8
52.1
points in paint / game
53.2

Rating Trend

LAL · DAL · 152 days
Los Angeles LakersDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 4−6
Feb 12at LALLAL 124 − 104
Jan 24at DALLAL 116 − 110
Nov 28, 2025at LALLAL 129 − 119
Apr 9, 2025at DALLAL 112 − 97
Feb 25, 2025at LALLAL 107 − 99
Jan 7, 2025at DALDAL 118 − 97
Jan 17, 2024at LALLAL 127 − 110
Dec 12, 2023at DALDAL 127 − 125
Nov 22, 2023at LALDAL 104 − 101
Mar 17, 2023at LALDAL 111 − 110

LAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 2at OKC96 − 139L
Mar 31vs CLE127 − 113W
Mar 30vs WSH120 − 101W
Mar 27vs BKN116 − 99W
Mar 25at IND137 − 130W
Mar 23at DET110 − 113L
Mar 21at ORL105 − 104W
Mar 19at MIA134 − 126W
Mar 18at HOU124 − 116W
Mar 16at HOU100 − 92W

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Apr 3vs ORL127 − 138L
Mar 31at MIL99 − 123L
Mar 30vs MIN94 − 124L
Mar 27at POR100 − 93W
Mar 25at DEN135 − 142L
Mar 23vs GS131 − 137L
Mar 21vs LAC131 − 138L
Mar 18vs ATL120 − 135L
Mar 16at NO111 − 129L
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W