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Magic at Mavericks

NBA · Friday, Apr 3 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final ORL 138 – DAL 127
← NBA / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL38334027138
DAL31273435127
Team box
ORL·DAL
47-84
field goals
44-95
14-26
3-pointers
14-42
30-37
free throws
25-31
43
rebounds
41
35
assists
25
17
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cooper FlaggDAL345163
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL362863
Desmond BaneORL332775
Brandon WilliamsDAL262325
Jalen SuggsORL311949
Tristan da SilvaORL291951

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +30
ORL +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 3 · ORL 30lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 57%, DAL 43% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
ORL by 2.2
Expected score
ORL 114.9 – 112.7 DAL
Expected total
227.6
MagicThe matchupMavericks
−135Our fair odds+135
114.9Expected points112.7
+0.01Power rating−0.51
115.1Points / game113.4
115.3Allowed / game119.1
46.3FG%46.8
33.93P%33.8
43.1Rebounds / game44.7
40−36Season record24−52
2−8Last 102−8
Alex Morales · Anthony Black
Colin Castleton · Jonathan IsaacOutDereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · DAL chance
Our model fair57.4%42.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic−13557%————
DALDallas Mavericks+13543%————
SpreadORL by 2.2
ORLOrlando Magic−2.2our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.6
Over227.6our total————
Under227.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 2.2 expected
Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%
← ORL wins byDAL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more46%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more32%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.6 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·DAL
Apr 1 vs ATL
last game
Mar 31 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 3, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia;Doubtful
DALMarvin Bagley III · left shoulder; impingementDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALP.J. Washington · illness; illnessDoubtful
DALJohn Poulakidas · strain g league - two-wayProbable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
ORL·DAL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.51
115.1
points / game
113.4
115.3
points allowed / game
119.1
40−36
season record
24−52
24−16
home record
14−24
16−20
away record
10−28
L1
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
2−8
46.3
FG%
46.8
33.9
3P%
33.8
43.1
rebounds / game
44.7
26.3
assists / game
25.2
14.0
turnovers / game
14.8
50.8
points in paint / game
53.2

Rating Trend

ORL · DAL · 150 days
Orlando MagicDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DAL 6−3
Mar 5at ORLORL 115 − 114
Mar 27, 2025at ORLDAL 101 − 92
Nov 3, 2024at DALDAL 108 − 85
Jan 29, 2024at DALDAL 131 − 129
Nov 6, 2023at ORLDAL 117 − 102
Nov 9, 2022at ORLORL 94 − 87
Oct 30, 2022at DALDAL 114 − 105
Jan 30, 2022at ORLORL 110 − 108
Jan 15, 2022at DALDAL 108 − 92

ORL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Apr 1vs ATL101 − 130L
Mar 31vs PHX115 − 111W
Mar 29at TOR87 − 139L
Mar 26vs SAC121 − 117W
Mar 24at CLE131 − 136L
Mar 23vs IND126 − 128L
Mar 21vs LAL104 − 105L
Mar 19at CHA111 − 130L
Mar 17vs OKC108 − 113L
Mar 16at ATL112 − 124L

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Mar 31at MIL99 − 123L
Mar 30vs MIN94 − 124L
Mar 27at POR100 − 93W
Mar 25at DEN135 − 142L
Mar 23vs GS131 − 137L
Mar 21vs LAC131 − 138L
Mar 18vs ATL120 − 135L
Mar 16at NO111 − 129L
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L