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Hawks at Magic

NBA · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final ATL 130 – ORL 101
← NBA / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL25473028130
ORL28262225101
Team box
ATL·ORL
47-92
field goals
35-88
15-37
3-pointers
6-32
21-27
free throws
25-31
51
rebounds
37
27
assists
29
17
turnovers
19
48
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL333241
Jalen JohnsonATL3418148
Jamal CainORL271710
Onyeka OkongwuATL311674
Dyson DanielsATL3115134
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL251460

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +31
ATL +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 7 · ATL 31lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 49%, ORL 51% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
ATL by 0.2
Expected score
ATL 115.6 – 115.4 ORL
Expected total
231.0
HawksThe matchupMagic
+105Our fair odds−105
115.6Expected points115.4
+0.19Power rating+0.01
118.2Points / game115.3
116.2Allowed / game115.1
47.3FG%46.4
36.73P%34.1
43.4Rebounds / game43.2
43−33Season record40−35
8−2Last 103−7
—OutAlex Morales · Anthony Black
Colin Castleton · Jonathan Isaac

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · ORL chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+10549%————
ORLOrlando Magic−10551%————
SpreadATL by 0.2
ATLAtlanta Hawks−0.2our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.0
Over231.0our total————
Under231.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 0.2 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%
← ATL wins byORL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more40%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more27%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.0 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.548%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·ORL
Mar 30 vs BOS
last game
Mar 31 vs PHX
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 1, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLJock Landale · n/a; illnessQuestionable
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayQuestionable
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayQuestionable
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
ATL·ORL
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
118.2
points / game
115.3
116.2
points allowed / game
115.1
43−33
season record
40−35
23−16
home record
24−15
20−17
away record
16−20
W2
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
3−7
47.3
FG%
46.4
36.7
3P%
34.1
43.4
rebounds / game
43.2
30.3
assists / game
26.3
14.1
turnovers / game
14.0
51.8
points in paint / game
50.7

Rating Trend

ATL · ORL · 148 days
Atlanta HawksOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 3−7
Mar 16at ATLATL 124 − 112
Nov 4, 2025at ATLATL 127 − 112
Oct 24, 2025at ORLATL 111 − 107
Apr 13, 2025at ATLATL 117 − 105
Apr 8, 2025at ORLORL 119 − 112
Feb 20, 2025at ATLORL 114 − 108
Feb 10, 2025at ORLATL 112 − 106
Feb 25, 2024at ATLATL 109 − 92
Jan 17, 2024at ATLATL 106 − 104
Jan 7, 2024at ORLORL 117 − 110

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Mar 30vs BOS112 − 102W
Mar 28vs SAC123 − 113W
Mar 27at BOS102 − 109L
Mar 25at DET130 − 129W
Mar 23vs MEM146 − 107W
Mar 21vs GS126 − 110W
Mar 20at HOU95 − 117L
Mar 18at DAL135 − 120W
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W

ORL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 31vs PHX115 − 111W
Mar 29at TOR87 − 139L
Mar 26vs SAC121 − 117W
Mar 24at CLE131 − 136L
Mar 23vs IND126 − 128L
Mar 21vs LAL104 − 105L
Mar 19at CHA111 − 130L
Mar 17vs OKC108 − 113L
Mar 16at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 14at MIA121 − 117W