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Rockets at Suns

NBA · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 10:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final HOU 119 – PHX 105
← NBA / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU21332738119
PHX37202721105
Team box
HOU·PHX
45-100
field goals
32-75
14-38
3-pointers
7-31
15-16
free throws
34-39
55
rebounds
34
26
assists
15
19
turnovers
19
54
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX393148
Kevin DurantHOU362443
Amen ThompsonHOU3622118
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU392061
Mark WilliamsPHX281980
Jalen GreenPHX321531

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +21
HOU +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 21 · HOU 15lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 54%, PHX 46% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
HOU by 1.7
Expected score
HOU 110.5 – 108.8 PHX
Expected total
219.3
RocketsThe matchupSuns
−118Our fair odds+118
110.5Expected points108.8
+0.48Power rating+0.10
114.8Points / game112.9
110.0Allowed / game111.3
48.1FG%45.6
36.93P%36.2
47.9Rebounds / game43.0
49−29Season record43−35
8−2Last 104−6
Fred VanVleet · Steven AdamsOutHaywood Highsmith

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · PHX chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−11854%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+11846%————
SpreadHOU by 1.7
HOUHouston Rockets−1.7our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 219.3
Over219.3our total————
Under219.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 1.7 expected
Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%
← HOU wins byPHX wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more44%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more30%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

219.3 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 209.569%
Total over 219.549%
Total over 229.530%
Total from 210 to 22939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GJordan Goodwinstarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·PHX
Apr 5 at GS
last game
Apr 5 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 7, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
HOU·PHX
+0.48
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
114.8
points / game
112.9
110.0
points allowed / game
111.3
49−29
season record
43−35
28−10
home record
24−15
21−19
away record
19−20
W6
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
4−6
48.1
FG%
45.6
36.9
3P%
36.2
47.9
rebounds / game
43.0
25.4
assists / game
24.9
15.4
turnovers / game
14.4
52.4
points in paint / game
43.0

Rating Trend

HOU · PHX · 154 days
Houston RocketsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 2−8
Jan 5at HOUHOU 100 − 97
Dec 5, 2025at HOUHOU 117 − 98
Nov 24, 2025at PHXHOU 114 − 92
Mar 30, 2025at PHXHOU 148 − 109
Mar 12, 2025at HOUHOU 111 − 104
Feb 12, 2025at HOUHOU 119 − 111
Mar 2, 2024at PHXHOU 118 − 109
Feb 29, 2024at PHXPHX 110 − 105
Feb 23, 2024at HOUHOU 114 − 110
Dec 27, 2023at HOUPHX 129 − 113

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Apr 5at GS117 − 116W
Apr 3vs UTAH140 − 106W
Apr 1vs MIL119 − 113W
Mar 31vs NY111 − 94W
Mar 29at NO134 − 102W
Mar 27at MEM119 − 109W
Mar 25at MIN108 − 110L
Mar 23at CHI124 − 132L
Mar 21vs MIA123 − 122W
Mar 20vs ATL117 − 95W

PHX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 5at CHI120 − 110W
Apr 2at CHA107 − 127L
Mar 31at ORL111 − 115L
Mar 30at MEM131 − 105W
Mar 28vs UTAH134 − 109W
Mar 24vs DEN123 − 125L
Mar 22vs TOR120 − 98W
Mar 21vs MIL105 − 108L
Mar 19at SA100 − 101L
Mar 17at MIN104 − 116L