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Rockets at Warriors

NBA · Sunday, Apr 5 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final HOU 117 – GS 116
← NBA / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU26293725117
GS31222934116
Team box
HOU·GS
44-80
field goals
42-84
13-29
3-pointers
14-40
16-19
free throws
18-20
38
rebounds
31
30
assists
34
14
turnovers
10
54
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU373188
Stephen CurryGS262924
Alperen SengunHOU372467
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU322391
Amen ThompsonHOU391837
Brandin PodziemskiGS371823

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +15
HOU +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 7 · HOU 15lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 53%, GS 47% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
HOU by 1.4
Expected score
HOU 111.8 – 110.3 GS
Expected total
222.1
RocketsThe matchupWarriors
−115Our fair odds+115
111.8Expected points110.3
+0.43Power rating+0.06
114.8Points / game114.8
109.9Allowed / game115.1
48.0FG%46.1
36.83P%35.4
48.0Rebounds / game42.6
48−29Season record36−41
7−3Last 104−6
Fred VanVleet · Steven AdamsOutAl Horford · Jimmy Butler III
LJ Cryer · Moses Moody
Quinten Post

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · GS chance
Our model fair53.5%46.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−11553%————
GSGolden State Warriors+11547%————
SpreadHOU by 1.4
HOUHouston Rockets−1.4our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.1
Over222.1our total————
Under222.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 1.4 expected
Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%
← HOU wins byGS wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more44%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more30%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.1 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.568%
Total over 222.549%
Total over 232.529%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·GS
Apr 3 vs UTAH
last game
Apr 2 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 5, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSLJ Cryer · general; illnessOut
GSMoses Moody · left patellar tendon; surgeryOut
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · left adductor; injury managementQuestionable
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeQuestionable
GSGui Santos · right pelvic; contusionProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
HOU·GS
+0.43
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
114.8
points / game
114.8
109.9
points allowed / game
115.1
48−29
season record
36−41
28−10
home record
21−17
20−19
away record
15−24
W5
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
48.0
FG%
46.1
36.8
3P%
35.4
48.0
rebounds / game
42.6
25.4
assists / game
29.0
15.4
turnovers / game
15.7
52.4
points in paint / game
44.9

Rating Trend

HOU · GS · 152 days
Houston RocketsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 5−5
Mar 5at HOUGS 115 − 113
Nov 26, 2025at GSHOU 104 − 100
May 4, 2025at HOUGS 103 − 89post
May 2, 2025at GSHOU 115 − 107post
Apr 30, 2025at HOUHOU 131 − 116post
Apr 28, 2025at GSGS 109 − 106post
Apr 26, 2025at GSGS 104 − 93post
Apr 23, 2025at HOUHOU 109 − 94post
Apr 20, 2025at HOUGS 95 − 85post
Apr 6, 2025at GSHOU 106 − 96

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Apr 3vs UTAH140 − 106W
Apr 1vs MIL119 − 113W
Mar 31vs NY111 − 94W
Mar 29at NO134 − 102W
Mar 27at MEM119 − 109W
Mar 25at MIN108 − 110L
Mar 23at CHI124 − 132L
Mar 21vs MIA123 − 122W
Mar 20vs ATL117 − 95W
Mar 18vs LAL116 − 124L

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 2vs CLE111 − 118L
Apr 1vs SA113 − 127L
Mar 29at DEN93 − 116L
Mar 27vs WSH131 − 126W
Mar 25vs BKN109 − 106W
Mar 23at DAL137 − 131W
Mar 21at ATL110 − 126L
Mar 20at DET101 − 115L
Mar 18at BOS99 − 120L
Mar 16at WSH125 − 117W