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Suns at Thunder

NBA · Sunday, Apr 12 · 7:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final PHX 135 – OKC 103
← NBA / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX37333431135
OKC19332526103
Team box
PHX·OKC
56-101
field goals
41-95
20-41
3-pointers
18-46
3-6
free throws
3-9
54
rebounds
36
28
assists
32
13
turnovers
10
64
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamaree BouyeaPHX402759
Branden CarlsonOKC4226101
Payton SandfortOKC282340
Ryan DunnPHX2520115
Koby BreaPHX292053
Nikola TopicOKC3918414

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +32
PHX +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 0 · PHX 32lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 19%, OKC 81% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
OKC by 11.9
Expected score
OKC 116.2 – 104.3 PHX
Expected total
220.5
SunsThe matchupThunder
+418Our fair odds−418
104.3Expected points116.2
+0.10Power rating+1.33
112.3Points / game119.2
111.2Allowed / game107.5
45.5FG%48.6
35.83P%36.4
43.0Rebounds / game44.2
44−37Season record64−17
5−5Last 108−2
Devin Booker · Dillon Brooks
Grayson Allen · Royce O'NealeOutAjay Mitchell · Alex Caruso
Cason Wallace · Chet Holmgren
Isaiah Hartenstein

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · OKC chance
Our model fair19.3%80.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+41819%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−41881%————
SpreadOKC by 11.9
PHXPhoenix Suns+11.9our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−11.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.5
Over220.5our total————
Under220.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 11.9 expected
Phoenix Suns by 53 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 52 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 51 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 50 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← PHX wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more71%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more56%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more41%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.5 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.569%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GAmir Coffeystarted
GJamaree Bouyeastarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
FRyan Dunnstarted
FRasheer Flemingstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GJared McCainstarted
GNikola Topicstarted
CBranden Carlsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·OKC
Apr 10 at LAL
last game
Apr 10 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 12, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDevin Booker · right ankle; injury managementOut
PHXDillon Brooks · left 2nd metacarpal; injury managementOut
PHXGrayson Allen · left hamstring; sorenessOut
PHXRoyce O'Neale · left knee; injury managementOut
PHXCollin Gillespie · right shoulder; contusionQuestionable
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementQuestionable
PHXJalen Green · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
PHXJordan Goodwin · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
PHXMark Williams · left foot; injury managementQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · left ankle; injury managementOut
OKCAlex Caruso · restOut
OKCCason Wallace · left great toe; sorenessOut
OKCChet Holmgren · low back; spasmsOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · left soleus; injury managementOut
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; sorenesOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; injury managementOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right achilles; tendinitisOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · right oblique; injury managementOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
PHX·OKC
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+1.33
112.3
points / game
119.2
111.2
points allowed / game
107.5
44−37
season record
64−17
25−16
home record
34−7
19−21
away record
30−10
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
8−2
45.5
FG%
48.6
35.8
3P%
36.4
43.0
rebounds / game
44.2
24.6
assists / game
25.7
14.5
turnovers / game
12.6
42.9
points in paint / game
49.3

Rating Trend

PHX · OKC · 158 days
Phoenix SunsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 9−1
Feb 11at PHXOKC 136 − 109
Jan 4at PHXPHX 108 − 105
Dec 10, 2025at OKCOKC 138 − 89
Nov 28, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 119
Apr 9, 2025at PHXOKC 125 − 112
Feb 5, 2025at OKCOKC 140 − 109
Nov 15, 2024at OKCOKC 99 − 83
Mar 29, 2024at OKCOKC 128 − 103
Mar 3, 2024at PHXOKC 118 − 110
Nov 12, 2023at PHXOKC 111 − 99

PHX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 10at LAL73 − 101L
Apr 8vs DAL112 − 107W
Apr 7vs HOU105 − 119L
Apr 5at CHI120 − 110W
Apr 2at CHA107 − 127L
Mar 31at ORL111 − 115L
Mar 30at MEM131 − 105W
Mar 28vs UTAH134 − 109W
Mar 24vs DEN123 − 125L
Mar 22vs TOR120 − 98W

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 10at DEN107 − 127L
Apr 8at LAC128 − 110W
Apr 7at LAL123 − 87W
Apr 5vs UTAH146 − 111W
Apr 2vs LAL139 − 96W
Mar 30vs DET114 − 110W
Mar 29vs NY111 − 100W
Mar 27vs CHI131 − 113W
Mar 25at BOS109 − 119L
Mar 23at PHI123 − 103W