bayesRatings

Spurs at Timberwolves

NBA · Friday, May 15 · 8:30 PM CT · Target Center · Final SA 139 – MIN 109
← NBA / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA36383629139
MIN27342325109
Team box
SA·MIN
49-88
field goals
40-106
18-38
3-pointers
12-34
23-27
free throws
17-21
60
rebounds
29
34
assists
25
16
turnovers
5
58
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephon CastleSA3032116
Anthony EdwardsMIN362422
De'Aaron FoxSA242149
Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN222121
Victor WembanyamaSA271962
Naz ReidMIN321871

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +37
SA +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 0 · SA 37lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 53%, MIN 47% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
SA by 1.9
Expected score
SA 115.5 – 113.6 MIN
Expected total
229.1
SpursThe matchupTimberwolves
−114Our fair odds+114
115.5Expected points113.6
+0.84Power rating+0.46
119.7Points / game118.0
111.7Allowed / game114.6
48.4FG%48.2
35.83P%37.1
47.0Rebounds / game44.1
62−21 · 7−3 postSeason record49−33 · 6−5 post
7−3Last 106−4
—OutDonte DiVincenzo

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−11453%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+11447%————
SpreadSA by 1.9
SASan Antonio Spurs−1.9our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.1
Over229.1our total————
Under229.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 1.9 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%
← SA wins byMIN wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more45%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more31%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.1 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.548%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GAyo Dosunmustarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·MIN
May 12 vs MIN
last game
May 12 at SA
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 15, 5:00 PM ET
MINDonte DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon; repairOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · head; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
SA·MIN
+0.84
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
119.7
points / game
118.0
111.7
points allowed / game
114.6
62−21 · 7−3 post
season record
49−33 · 6−5 post
32−8
home record
26−15
30−13
away record
23−18
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
48.4
FG%
48.2
35.8
3P%
37.1
47.0
rebounds / game
44.1
28.1
assists / game
26.1
13.4
turnovers / game
14.8
52.0
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

SA · MIN · 185 days
San Antonio SpursMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
May 12at SASA 126 − 97post
May 10at MINMIN 114 − 109post
May 8at MINSA 115 − 108post
May 6at SASA 133 − 95post
May 4at SAMIN 104 − 102post
Jan 17at SASA 126 − 123
Jan 11at MINMIN 104 − 103
Nov 30, 2025at MINMIN 125 − 112
Mar 9, 2025at MINMIN 141 − 124
Dec 29, 2024at MINMIN 112 − 110

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 12vs MIN126 − 97W
May 10at MIN109 − 114L
May 8at MIN115 − 108W
May 6vs MIN133 − 95W
May 4vs MIN102 − 104L
Apr 28vs POR114 − 95W
Apr 26at POR114 − 93W
Apr 24at POR120 − 108W
Apr 21vs POR103 − 106L
Apr 19vs POR111 − 98W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 12at SA97 − 126L
May 10vs SA114 − 109W
May 8vs SA108 − 115L
May 6at SA95 − 133L
May 4at SA104 − 102W
Apr 30vs DEN110 − 98W
Apr 27at DEN113 − 125L
Apr 25vs DEN112 − 96W
Apr 23vs DEN113 − 96W
Apr 20at DEN119 − 114W