bayesRatings

Spurs at Trail Blazers

NBA · Sunday, Apr 26 · 2:30 PM CT · Moda Center · Final SA 114 – POR 93
← NBA / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA23183340114
POR2533161993
Team box
SA·POR
43-87
field goals
32-80
14-33
3-pointers
10-31
14-17
free throws
19-23
40
rebounds
39
26
assists
14
13
turnovers
18
52
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Aaron FoxSA392867
Victor WembanyamaSA3427123
Deni AvdijaPOR372673
Jrue HolidayPOR372064
Jerami GrantPOR331751
Stephon CastleSA261618

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +21
SA +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 19 · SA 21lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 64%, POR 36% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
SA by 5.1
Expected score
SA 117.8 – 112.8 POR
Expected total
230.6
SpursThe matchupTrail Blazers
−178Our fair odds+178
117.8Expected points112.8
+0.80Power rating−0.03
119.7Points / game115.5
111.7Allowed / game115.8
48.4FG%45.4
35.83P%34.2
47.0Rebounds / game46.0
62−21 · 2−1 postSeason record42−40 · 1−2 post
7−3Last 106−4
—OutDamian Lillard

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · POR chance
Our model fair64.1%35.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−17864%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+17836%————
SpreadSA by 5.1
SASan Antonio Spurs−5.1our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.6
Over230.6our total————
Under230.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 5.1 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%
← SA wins byPOR wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more54%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more39%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.6 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GScoot Hendersonstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·POR
Apr 24 at POR
last game
Apr 24 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 26, 5:00 PM ET
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
SA·POR
+0.80
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
119.7
points / game
115.5
111.7
points allowed / game
115.8
62−21 · 2−1 post
season record
42−40 · 1−2 post
32−8
home record
24−17
30−13
away record
18−23
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
48.4
FG%
45.4
35.8
3P%
34.2
47.0
rebounds / game
46.0
28.1
assists / game
25.1
13.4
turnovers / game
17.3
52.0
points in paint / game
48.3

Rating Trend

SA · POR · 167 days
San Antonio SpursPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 3−7
Apr 24at PORSA 120 − 108post
Apr 21at SAPOR 106 − 103post
Apr 19at SASA 111 − 98post
Apr 8at SASA 112 − 101
Jan 3at SAPOR 115 − 110
Nov 26, 2025at PORSA 115 − 102
Apr 6, 2025at PORPOR 120 − 109
Dec 21, 2024at SASA 114 − 94
Dec 13, 2024at PORSA 118 − 116
Nov 7, 2024at SASA 118 − 105

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 24at POR120 − 108W
Apr 21vs POR103 − 106L
Apr 19vs POR111 − 98W
Apr 12vs DEN118 − 128L
Apr 10vs DAL139 − 120W
Apr 8vs POR112 − 101W
Apr 6vs PHI115 − 102W
Apr 4at DEN134 − 136L
Apr 2at LAC118 − 99W
Apr 1at GS127 − 113W

POR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 24vs SA108 − 120L
Apr 21at SA106 − 103W
Apr 19at SA98 − 111L
Apr 12vs SAC122 − 110W
Apr 10vs LAC116 − 97W
Apr 8at SA101 − 112L
Apr 6at DEN132 − 137L
Apr 2vs NO118 − 106W
Mar 31at LAC114 − 104W
Mar 29vs WSH123 − 88W