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Mavericks at Spurs

NBA · Friday, Apr 10 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final DAL 120 – SA 139
← NBA / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL26392827120
SA37314031139
Team box
DAL·SA
45-98
field goals
50-92
15-40
3-pointers
13-32
15-19
free throws
26-27
35
rebounds
48
26
assists
30
7
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
72
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA2640135
Cooper FlaggDAL323365
De'Aaron FoxSA2818110
Keldon JohnsonSA241762
Max ChristieDAL311612
Harrison BarnesSA281521

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +24
DAL +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 24 · DAL 2lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 18%, SA 82% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
SA by 12.3
Expected score
SA 122.8 – 110.5 DAL
Expected total
233.3
MavericksThe matchupSpurs
+456Our fair odds−456
110.5Expected points122.8
−0.54Power rating+0.78
113.6Points / game119.5
119.3Allowed / game111.4
46.6FG%48.4
33.73P%35.8
44.7Rebounds / game47.0
25−55Season record61−20
2−8Last 109−1
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie IrvingOut (2 each)David Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · SA chance
Our model fair18.0%82.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+45618%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−45682%————
SpreadSA by 12.3
DALDallas Mavericks+12.3our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−12.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.3
Over233.3our total————
Under233.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 12.3 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 53 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 52 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 52 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 53 points: <1%
← DAL wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more72%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more58%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more42%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.3 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FMarvin Bagley IIIstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GDylan Harperstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·SA
Apr 8 at PHX
last game
Apr 8 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 10, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALBrandon Williams · illness; illnessDoubtful
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia; strainDoubtful
DALDaniel Gafford · restDoubtful
DALNaji Marshall · left hip; contusionDoubtful
DALP.J. Washington · left elbow; sprainDoubtful
DALDwight Powell · left hip; sorenessQuestionable
DALMarvin Bagley III · left shoulder; impingementQuestionable
DALCooper Flagg · left wrist; sprainProbable
and 3 more
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · right ankle; surgeryOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SAStephon Castle · left foot; sorenessQuestionable
SAVictor Wembanyama · left rib; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
DAL·SA
−0.54
rating (0 = average)
+0.78
113.6
points / game
119.5
119.3
points allowed / game
111.4
25−55
season record
61−20
15−25
home record
31−7
10−30
away record
30−13
L2
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
9−1
46.6
FG%
48.4
33.7
3P%
35.8
44.7
rebounds / game
47.0
25.1
assists / game
28.1
14.6
turnovers / game
13.5
52.9
points in paint / game
51.8

Rating Trend

DAL · SA · 157 days
Dallas MavericksSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 4−6
Feb 7at SASA 138 − 125
Feb 5at DALSA 135 − 123
Oct 22, 2025at DALSA 125 − 92
Mar 12, 2025at SASA 126 − 116
Mar 10, 2025at SADAL 133 − 129
Nov 16, 2024at DALDAL 110 − 93
Oct 24, 2024at DALDAL 120 − 109
Mar 19, 2024at SADAL 113 − 107
Feb 14, 2024at DALDAL 116 − 93
Dec 23, 2023at DALDAL 144 − 119

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 8at PHX107 − 112L
Apr 7at LAC103 − 116L
Apr 5vs LAL134 − 128W
Apr 3vs ORL127 − 138L
Mar 31at MIL99 − 123L
Mar 30vs MIN94 − 124L
Mar 27at POR100 − 93W
Mar 25at DEN135 − 142L
Mar 23vs GS131 − 137L
Mar 21vs LAC131 − 138L

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Apr 8vs POR112 − 101W
Apr 6vs PHI115 − 102W
Apr 4at DEN134 − 136L
Apr 2at LAC118 − 99W
Apr 1at GS127 − 113W
Mar 30vs CHI129 − 114W
Mar 28at MIL127 − 95W
Mar 25at MEM123 − 98W
Mar 23at MIA136 − 111W
Mar 21vs IND134 − 119W