bayesRatings

76ers at Spurs

NBA · Monday, Apr 6 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final PHI 102 – SA 115
← NBA / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI28273017102
SA29333023115
Team box
PHI·SA
34-88
field goals
44-89
10-31
3-pointers
11-32
24-29
free throws
16-22
48
rebounds
47
17
assists
31
12
turnovers
11
38
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Joel EmbiidPHI3934121
Stephon CastleSA31191013
Dylan HarperSA281734
Victor WembanyamaSA161751
Paul GeorgePHI381644
Tyrese MaxeyPHI401538

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +14
PHI +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 14 · PHI 4lead changes: 17

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 25%, SA 75% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
SA by 8.9
Expected score
SA 120.3 – 111.4 PHI
Expected total
231.7
76ersThe matchupSpurs
+302Our fair odds−302
111.4Expected points120.3
−0.15Power rating+0.74
116.2Points / game119.7
116.5Allowed / game111.6
46.4FG%48.3
34.63P%35.7
43.3Rebounds / game47.0
43−35Season record59−20
6−4Last 109−1
Cameron Payne · Johni BroomeOutDavid Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison Ingram

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · SA chance
Our model fair24.9%75.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+30225%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−30275%————
SpreadSA by 8.9
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+8.9our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−8.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.7
Over231.7our total————
Under231.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 8.9 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 51 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%
← PHI wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more64%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more48%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.7 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·SA
Apr 4 vs DET
last game
Apr 4 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 6, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHICameron Payne · right hamstring; strainOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · right ankle; surgeryOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
PHI·SA
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.74
116.2
points / game
119.7
116.5
points allowed / game
111.6
43−35
season record
59−20
22−18
home record
29−7
21−17
away record
30−13
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
9−1
46.4
FG%
48.3
34.6
3P%
35.7
43.3
rebounds / game
47.0
24.8
assists / game
28.0
13.7
turnovers / game
13.5
50.1
points in paint / game
51.7

Rating Trend

PHI · SA · 153 days
Philadelphia 76ersSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SA 3−6
Mar 3at PHISA 131 − 91
Mar 21, 2025at SASA 128 − 120
Dec 23, 2024at PHIPHI 111 − 106
Apr 7, 2024at SAPHI 133 − 126
Jan 22, 2024at PHIPHI 133 − 123
Feb 3, 2023at SAPHI 137 − 125
Oct 22, 2022at PHISA 114 − 105
Jan 23, 2022at SAPHI 115 − 109
Jan 7, 2022at PHIPHI 119 − 100

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 4vs DET93 − 116L
Apr 3vs MIN115 − 103W
Apr 1at WSH153 − 131W
Mar 30at MIA109 − 119L
Mar 28at CHA118 − 114W
Mar 25vs CHI157 − 137W
Mar 23vs OKC103 − 123L
Mar 21at UTAH126 − 116W
Mar 19at SAC139 − 118W
Mar 17at DEN96 − 124L

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Apr 4at DEN134 − 136L
Apr 2at LAC118 − 99W
Apr 1at GS127 − 113W
Mar 30vs CHI129 − 114W
Mar 28at MIL127 − 95W
Mar 25at MEM123 − 98W
Mar 23at MIA136 − 111W
Mar 21vs IND134 − 119W
Mar 19vs PHX101 − 100W
Mar 17at SAC132 − 104W