bayesRatings

Pistons at 76ers

NBA · Saturday, Apr 4 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final DET 116 – PHI 93
← NBA / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET41302421116
PHI3129211293
Team box
DET·PHI
43-87
field goals
35-79
11-28
3-pointers
8-29
19-24
free throws
15-19
45
rebounds
33
33
assists
17
12
turnovers
15
54
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI332311
Paul GeorgePHI282054
VJ EdgecombePHI351961
Tobias HarrisDET271942
Daniss JenkinsDET3216414
Jalen DurenDET301673

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +26
DET +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 2 · DET 26lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 65%, PHI 35% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
DET by 6.3
Expected score
DET 117.5 – 111.2 PHI
Expected total
228.7
PistonsThe matchup76ers
−182Our fair odds+182
117.5Expected points111.2
+0.68Power rating−0.15
117.5Points / game116.5
109.6Allowed / game116.5
48.4FG%46.4
35.43P%34.7
45.6Rebounds / game43.5
56−21Season record43−34
8−2Last 107−3
Bobi Klintman · Cade Cunningham
Isaac Jones · Isaiah Stewart
Wendell Moore Jr.OutJoel Embiid · Johni Broome

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · PHI chance
Our model fair64.6%35.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons−18265%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+18235%————
SpreadDET by 6.3
DETDetroit Pistons−6.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+6.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.7
Over228.7our total————
Under228.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 6.3 expected
Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%
← DET wins byPHI wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more58%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more42%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.7 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GAusar Thompsonstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
CAndre Drummondstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·PHI
Apr 2 vs MIN
last game
Apr 3 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 4, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETCade Cunningham · left lung; pneumothoraxOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · left calf; strainOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
DETJalen Duren · illness; illnessQuestionable
DETTobias Harris · left knee; contusionQuestionable
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right oblique; injury management; illnessOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIPaul George · left knee; injury managementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
DET·PHI
+0.68
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
117.5
points / game
116.5
109.6
points allowed / game
116.5
56−21
season record
43−34
31−9
home record
22−17
25−12
away record
21−17
W2
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
7−3
48.4
FG%
46.4
35.4
3P%
34.7
45.6
rebounds / game
43.5
27.5
assists / game
24.9
15.1
turnovers / game
13.7
57.7
points in paint / game
50.2

Rating Trend

DET · PHI · 151 days
Detroit PistonsPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Mar 12at DETDET 131 − 109
Nov 14, 2025at DETDET 114 − 105
Nov 9, 2025at PHIDET 111 − 108
Feb 7, 2025at DETDET 125 − 112
Nov 30, 2024at DETPHI 111 − 96
Oct 30, 2024at PHIDET 105 − 95
Apr 9, 2024at PHIPHI 120 − 102
Dec 15, 2023at PHIPHI 124 − 92
Dec 13, 2023at DETPHI 129 − 111
Nov 10, 2023at DETPHI 114 − 106

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 2vs MIN113 − 108W
Mar 31vs TOR127 − 116W
Mar 30at OKC110 − 114L
Mar 28at MIN109 − 87W
Mar 26vs NO129 − 108W
Mar 25vs ATL129 − 130L
Mar 23vs LAL113 − 110W
Mar 20vs GS115 − 101W
Mar 19at WSH117 − 95W
Mar 17at WSH130 − 117W

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 3vs MIN115 − 103W
Apr 1at WSH153 − 131W
Mar 30at MIA109 − 119L
Mar 28at CHA118 − 114W
Mar 25vs CHI157 − 137W
Mar 23vs OKC103 − 123L
Mar 21at UTAH126 − 116W
Mar 19at SAC139 − 118W
Mar 17at DEN96 − 124L
Mar 15vs POR109 − 103W