bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Pistons

NBA · Thursday, Apr 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final MIN 108 – DET 113
← NBA / Apr 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN31232628108
DET30242534113
Team box
MIN·DET
38-86
field goals
41-86
13-42
3-pointers
10-23
19-25
free throws
21-29
40
rebounds
48
22
assists
29
14
turnovers
15
46
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julius RandleMIN352766
Daniss JenkinsDET372658
Jalen DurenDET3622144
Naz ReidMIN311963
Ayo DosunmuMIN331954
Duncan RobinsonDET291543

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +11
MIN +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 11 · MIN 7lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 40%, DET 60% · Updated Apr 2

Expected margin
DET by 3.4
Expected score
DET 114.5 – 111.1 MIN
Expected total
225.6
TimberwolvesThe matchupPistons
+152Our fair odds−152
111.1Expected points114.5
+0.48Power rating+0.68
117.9Points / game117.5
114.1Allowed / game109.6
48.2FG%48.4
37.13P%35.2
44.7Rebounds / game45.6
46−29Season record55−21
6−4Last 107−3
Enrique Freeman · Jaden McDaniels
Rocco Zikarsky · Zyon PullinOutBobi Klintman · Cade Cunningham
Chaz Lanier · Isaac Jones
Isaiah Stewart

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DET chance
Our model fair39.6%60.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+15240%————
DETDetroit Pistons−15260%————
SpreadDET by 3.4
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+3.4our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.6
Over225.6our total————
Under225.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 3.4 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%
← MIN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more50%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more35%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FJulius Randlestarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Detroit Pistons
GAusar Thompsonstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DET
Mar 30 at DAL
last game
Mar 31 vs TOR
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 2, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJaden McDaniels · left knee; patella tendinopathyOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; patellofemoral pain syndrome; illnessQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETCade Cunningham · left lung; pneumothoraxOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · left calf; strainOut
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
MIN·DET
+0.48
rating (0 = average)
+0.68
117.9
points / game
117.5
114.1
points allowed / game
109.6
46−29
season record
55−21
25−14
home record
30−9
21−15
away record
25−12
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
48.2
FG%
48.4
37.1
3P%
35.2
44.7
rebounds / game
45.6
26.2
assists / game
27.4
14.9
turnovers / game
15.1
50.1
points in paint / game
57.8

Rating Trend

MIN · DET · 149 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 4−5
Mar 28at MINDET 109 − 87
Mar 30, 2025at MINMIN 123 − 104
Jan 4, 2025at DETDET 119 − 105
Mar 27, 2024at MINMIN 106 − 91
Jan 17, 2024at DETMIN 124 − 117
Jan 11, 2023at DETDET 135 − 118
Dec 31, 2022at MINDET 116 − 104
Feb 6, 2022at MINMIN 118 − 105
Feb 3, 2022at DETMIN 128 − 117

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 30at DAL124 − 94W
Mar 28vs DET87 − 109L
Mar 25vs HOU110 − 108W
Mar 22at BOS102 − 92W
Mar 20vs POR104 − 108L
Mar 18vs UTAH147 − 111W
Mar 17vs PHX116 − 104W
Mar 15at OKC103 − 116L
Mar 13at GS127 − 117W
Mar 11at LAC128 − 153L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Mar 31vs TOR127 − 116W
Mar 30at OKC110 − 114L
Mar 28at MIN109 − 87W
Mar 26vs NO129 − 108W
Mar 25vs ATL129 − 130L
Mar 23vs LAL113 − 110W
Mar 20vs GS115 − 101W
Mar 19at WSH117 − 95W
Mar 17at WSH130 − 117W
Mar 15at TOR108 − 119L