bayesRatings

Timberwolves at 76ers

NBA · Friday, Apr 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final MIN 103 – PHI 115
← NBA / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN17302432103
PHI19224232115
Team box
MIN·PHI
38-101
field goals
41-82
14-43
3-pointers
9-26
13-20
free throws
24-28
43
rebounds
53
21
assists
27
12
turnovers
16
40
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paul GeorgePHI382366
Tyrese MaxeyPHI352168
Julius RandleMIN372173
Bones HylandMIN302153
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI302151
Joel EmbiidPHI3419137

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +17
MIN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 17 · MIN 10lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 60%, PHI 40% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
MIN by 4.1
Expected score
MIN 117.2 – 113.2 PHI
Expected total
230.4
TimberwolvesThe matchup76ers
−149Our fair odds+149
117.2Expected points113.2
+0.48Power rating−0.15
117.8Points / game116.6
114.1Allowed / game116.7
48.2FG%46.4
37.13P%34.7
44.6Rebounds / game43.3
46−30Season record42−34
6−4Last 107−3
Enrique Freeman · Jaden McDaniels
Rocco Zikarsky · Zyon PullinOutJohni Broome

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · PHI chance
Our model fair59.9%40.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−14960%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+14940%————
SpreadMIN by 4.1
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−4.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.4
Over230.4our total————
Under230.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.1 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%
← MIN wins byPHI wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more51%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more36%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.4 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·PHI
Apr 2 at DET
last game
Apr 1 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 3, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJaden McDaniels · left knee; patella tendinopathyOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; patellofemoral pain syndrome; illnessQuestionable
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIJoel Embiid · n/a; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
MIN·PHI
+0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
117.8
points / game
116.6
114.1
points allowed / game
116.7
46−30
season record
42−34
25−14
home record
21−17
21−16
away record
21−17
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
48.2
FG%
46.4
37.1
3P%
34.7
44.6
rebounds / game
43.3
26.1
assists / game
24.9
14.8
turnovers / game
13.6
50.1
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

MIN · PHI · 150 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PHI 4−5
Feb 22at MINPHI 135 − 108
Apr 5, 2025at PHIMIN 114 − 109
Mar 4, 2025at MINMIN 126 − 112
Dec 20, 2023at PHIPHI 127 − 113
Nov 22, 2023at MINMIN 112 − 99
Mar 7, 2023at MINPHI 117 − 94
Nov 19, 2022at PHIMIN 112 − 109
Feb 25, 2022at MINPHI 133 − 102
Nov 27, 2021at PHIMIN 121 − 120

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 2at DET108 − 113L
Mar 30at DAL124 − 94W
Mar 28vs DET87 − 109L
Mar 25vs HOU110 − 108W
Mar 22at BOS102 − 92W
Mar 20vs POR104 − 108L
Mar 18vs UTAH147 − 111W
Mar 17vs PHX116 − 104W
Mar 15at OKC103 − 116L
Mar 13at GS127 − 117W

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 1at WSH153 − 131W
Mar 30at MIA109 − 119L
Mar 28at CHA118 − 114W
Mar 25vs CHI157 − 137W
Mar 23vs OKC103 − 123L
Mar 21at UTAH126 − 116W
Mar 19at SAC139 − 118W
Mar 17at DEN96 − 124L
Mar 15vs POR109 − 103W
Mar 14vs BKN104 − 97W