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Nuggets at Spurs

NBA · Sunday, Apr 12 · 7:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final DEN 128 – SA 118
← NBA / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN37333127128
SA34223527118
Team box
DEN·SA
50-100
field goals
45-99
11-30
3-pointers
15-47
17-22
free throws
13-18
58
rebounds
45
30
assists
27
12
turnovers
9
62
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julian StrawtherDEN342563
De'Aaron FoxSA332465
Nikola JokicDEN182381
Devin VassellSA331942
Keldon JohnsonSA221861
Jonas ValanciunasDEN1916114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +23
DEN +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 5 · DEN 23lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 39%, SA 61% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
SA by 3.0
Expected score
SA 120.9 – 117.9 DEN
Expected total
238.8
NuggetsThe matchupSpurs
+159Our fair odds−159
117.9Expected points120.9
+0.52Power rating+0.78
122.0Points / game119.8
116.9Allowed / game111.5
49.7FG%48.4
39.63P%35.8
43.8Rebounds / game47.0
53−28Season record62−20
10−0Last 109−1
Aaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Christian Braun · Jamal Murray
Peyton WatsonOutDavid Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Luke Kornet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · SA chance
Our model fair38.5%61.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+15939%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−15961%————
SpreadSA by 3.0
DENDenver Nuggets+3our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−3our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.8
Over238.8our total————
Under238.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 3.0 expected
Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%
← DEN wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more48%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more34%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.8 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GTyus Jonesstarted
GBruce Brownstarted
GJulian Strawtherstarted
FZeke Nnajistarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CMason Plumleestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·SA
Apr 10 vs OKC
last game
Apr 10 vs DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 12, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; injury managementOut
DENCameron Johnson · right ankle; injury managementOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; injury management/right hip flexor strainOut
DENJamal Murray · right shoulder; impingementOut
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENSpencer Jones · right hamstring; strainOut
DENTim Hardaway Jr. · left knee; sorenessOut
DENNikola Jokic · right wrist; injury managementQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · right foot; surgeryOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SALuke Kornet · right shoulder; sorenessOut
SADevin Vassell · right ribcage; sorenessQuestionable
SAStephon Castle · left foot; sorenessQuestionable
SAVictor Wembanyama · left ribcage; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
DEN·SA
+0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.78
122.0
points / game
119.8
116.9
points allowed / game
111.5
53−28
season record
62−20
28−13
home record
32−7
25−15
away record
30−13
W11
streak
W3
10−0
last 10
9−1
49.7
FG%
48.4
39.6
3P%
35.8
43.8
rebounds / game
47.0
29.0
assists / game
28.1
12.9
turnovers / game
13.4
49.3
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

DEN · SA · 158 days
Denver NuggetsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 4−6
Apr 4at DENDEN 136 − 134
Mar 12at SADEN 136 − 131
Nov 28, 2025at DENSA 139 − 136
Apr 2, 2025at DENSA 113 − 106
Jan 4, 2025at SADEN 122 − 111
Jan 3, 2025at DENSA 113 − 110
Apr 12, 2024at SASA 121 − 120
Apr 2, 2024at DENDEN 110 − 105
Mar 15, 2024at SADEN 117 − 106
Nov 26, 2023at DENDEN 132 − 120

DEN · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Apr 10vs OKC127 − 107W
Apr 8vs MEM136 − 119W
Apr 6vs POR137 − 132W
Apr 4vs SA136 − 134W
Apr 1at UTAH130 − 117W
Mar 29vs GS116 − 93W
Mar 27vs UTAH135 − 129W
Mar 25vs DAL142 − 135W
Mar 24at PHX125 − 123W
Mar 22vs POR128 − 112W

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Apr 10vs DAL139 − 120W
Apr 8vs POR112 − 101W
Apr 6vs PHI115 − 102W
Apr 4at DEN134 − 136L
Apr 2at LAC118 − 99W
Apr 1at GS127 − 113W
Mar 30vs CHI129 − 114W
Mar 28at MIL127 − 95W
Mar 25at MEM123 − 98W
Mar 23at MIA136 − 111W