bayesRatings

Nuggets at Timberwolves

NBA · Thursday, Apr 30 · 8:30 PM CT · Target Center · Final DEN 98 – MIN 110
← NBA / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN3020242498
MIN29282528110
Team box
DEN·MIN
34-75
field goals
43-94
10-27
3-pointers
7-29
20-25
free throws
17-24
33
rebounds
50
24
assists
26
13
turnovers
8
40
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaden McDanielsMIN4532103
Nikola JokicDEN4328910
Cameron JohnsonDEN392783
Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN352461
Julius RandleMIN371845
Naz ReidMIN341574

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +12
DEN +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 12 · DEN 5lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 46%, MIN 54% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
MIN by 1.0
Expected score
MIN 118.8 – 117.8 DEN
Expected total
236.5
NuggetsThe matchupTimberwolves
+115Our fair odds−115
117.8Expected points118.8
+0.57Power rating+0.47
122.1Points / game118.0
116.9Allowed / game114.6
49.7FG%48.2
39.53P%37.1
44.0Rebounds / game44.1
54−28 · 2−3 postSeason record49−33 · 3−2 post
7−3Last 106−4
Peyton WatsonOutAnthony Edwards · Donte DiVincenzo

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · MIN chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+11546%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−11554%————
SpreadMIN by 1.0
DENDenver Nuggets+1our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.5
Over236.5our total————
Under236.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 1.0 expected
Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%
← DEN wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more43%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more29%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.5 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GTerrence Shannon Jr.started
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·MIN
Apr 27 vs MIN
last game
Apr 27 at DEN
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 30, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENAaron Gordon · left calf; tightnessQuestionable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · left knee; bone bruiseOut
MINDonte DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon; repairOut
MINAyo Dosunmu · right calf; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
DEN·MIN
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
+0.47
122.1
points / game
118.0
116.9
points allowed / game
114.6
54−28 · 2−3 post
season record
49−33 · 3−2 post
28−13
home record
26−15
26−15
away record
23−18
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
49.7
FG%
48.2
39.5
3P%
37.1
44.0
rebounds / game
44.1
29.0
assists / game
26.1
12.9
turnovers / game
14.8
49.5
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

DEN · MIN · 171 days
Denver NuggetsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Apr 27at DENDEN 125 − 113post
Apr 25at MINMIN 112 − 96post
Apr 23at MINMIN 113 − 96post
Apr 20at DENMIN 119 − 114post
Apr 18at DENDEN 116 − 105post
Mar 1at DENMIN 117 − 108
Dec 25, 2025at DENDEN 142 − 138
Nov 15, 2025at MINDEN 123 − 112
Oct 27, 2025at MINDEN 127 − 114
Apr 1, 2025at DENMIN 140 − 139

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 27vs MIN125 − 113W
Apr 25at MIN96 − 112L
Apr 23at MIN96 − 113L
Apr 20vs MIN114 − 119L
Apr 18vs MIN116 − 105W
Apr 12at SA128 − 118W
Apr 10vs OKC127 − 107W
Apr 8vs MEM136 − 119W
Apr 6vs POR137 − 132W
Apr 4vs SA136 − 134W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 27at DEN113 − 125L
Apr 25vs DEN112 − 96W
Apr 23vs DEN113 − 96W
Apr 20at DEN119 − 114W
Apr 18at DEN105 − 116L
Apr 12vs NO132 − 126W
Apr 10at HOU136 − 132W
Apr 8at ORL120 − 132L
Apr 7at IND124 − 104W
Apr 5vs CHA108 − 122L