bayesRatings

Hornets at Timberwolves

NBA · Sunday, Apr 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final CHA 122 – MIN 108
← NBA / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA29263433122
MIN21391929108
Team box
CHA·MIN
45-92
field goals
38-83
19-45
3-pointers
14-38
13-15
free throws
18-23
46
rebounds
39
31
assists
24
15
turnovers
18
50
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LaMelo BallCHA313538
Julius RandleMIN322684
Miles BridgesCHA342587
Bones HylandMIN291866
Coby WhiteCHA201701
Rudy GobertMIN3012102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +22
CHA +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 7 · CHA 22lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 34%, MIN 66% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
MIN by 4.1
Expected score
MIN 113.9 – 109.8 CHA
Expected total
223.7
HornetsThe matchupTimberwolves
+193Our fair odds−193
109.8Expected points113.9
+0.04Power rating+0.48
116.4Points / game117.6
111.3Allowed / game114.1
46.2FG%48.0
38.03P%37.0
46.2Rebounds / game44.6
42−36Season record46−31
8−2Last 105−5
Antonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan EvbuomwanOutAnthony Edwards · Jaden McDaniels

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair34.2%65.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+19334%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−19366%————
SpreadMIN by 4.1
CHACharlotte Hornets+4.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.7
Over223.7our total————
Under223.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.1 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%
← CHA wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more51%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more36%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.7 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FJulius Randlestarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·MIN
Apr 3 vs IND
last game
Apr 3 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 5, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · right ankle; fractureOut
CHATidjane Salaun · g league - on assignmentOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut
CHAMoussa Diabate · left ankle; sprainProbable
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; patellofemoral pain syndromeOut
MINJaden McDaniels · left knee; patella tendinopathyOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
CHA·MIN
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
116.4
points / game
117.6
111.3
points allowed / game
114.1
42−36
season record
46−31
21−19
home record
25−14
21−17
away record
21−17
W3
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
5−5
46.2
FG%
48.0
38.0
3P%
37.0
46.2
rebounds / game
44.6
26.4
assists / game
26.1
15.4
turnovers / game
14.8
45.5
points in paint / game
49.9

Rating Trend

CHA · MIN · 152 days
Charlotte HornetsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 5−4
Nov 1, 2025at CHAMIN 122 − 105
Mar 5, 2025at CHAMIN 125 − 110
Nov 4, 2024at MINMIN 114 − 93
Jan 22, 2024at MINCHA 128 − 125
Dec 2, 2023at CHAMIN 123 − 117
Feb 24, 2023at MINCHA 121 − 113
Nov 25, 2022at CHACHA 110 − 108
Feb 15, 2022at MINMIN 126 − 120
Nov 26, 2021at CHACHA 133 − 115

CHA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Apr 3vs IND129 − 108W
Apr 2vs PHX127 − 107W
Mar 31at BKN117 − 86W
Mar 29vs BOS99 − 114L
Mar 28vs PHI114 − 118L
Mar 26vs NY114 − 103W
Mar 24vs SAC134 − 90W
Mar 21vs MEM124 − 101W
Mar 19vs ORL130 − 111W
Mar 17vs MIA136 − 106W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 3at PHI103 − 115L
Apr 2at DET108 − 113L
Mar 30at DAL124 − 94W
Mar 28vs DET87 − 109L
Mar 25vs HOU110 − 108W
Mar 22at BOS102 − 92W
Mar 20vs POR104 − 108L
Mar 18vs UTAH147 − 111W
Mar 17vs PHX116 − 104W
Mar 15at OKC103 − 116L