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Timberwolves at Rockets

NBA · Friday, Apr 10 · 8:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final MIN 136 – HOU 132
← NBA / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN37323433136
HOU36373326132
Team box
MIN·HOU
51-89
field goals
53-87
15-30
3-pointers
4-19
19-25
free throws
22-28
25
rebounds
39
27
assists
29
8
turnovers
13
64
points in paint
86
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Amen ThompsonHOU424197
Kevin DurantHOU393377
Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN282301
Alperen SengunHOU292268
Anthony EdwardsMIN272223
Donte DiVincenzoMIN291842

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +10
MIN +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 10 · MIN 10lead changes: 22

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, HOU 57% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
HOU by 2.4
Expected score
HOU 112.4 – 110.0 MIN
Expected total
222.4
TimberwolvesThe matchupRockets
+133Our fair odds−133
110.0Expected points112.4
+0.41Power rating+0.48
117.6Points / game114.8
114.3Allowed / game109.8
48.1FG%48.0
37.13P%36.9
44.3Rebounds / game48.0
47−33Season record51−29
4−6Last 108−2
Bones Hyland · Joe Ingles
Julius Randle · Rudy GobertOutFred VanVleet · Steven Adams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair42.8%57.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+13343%————
HOUHouston Rockets−13357%————
SpreadHOU by 2.4
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+2.4our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.4
Over222.4our total————
Under222.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 2.4 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%
← MIN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more47%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more32%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.4 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.569%
Total over 222.549%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FKyle Andersonstarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
FJoan Beringerstarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·HOU
Apr 8 at ORL
last game
Apr 9 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 10, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINBones Hyland · right hip; sorenessOut
MINJoe Ingles · personal reasonsOut
MINJulius Randle · right hand; sorenessOut
MINRudy Gobert · restOut
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; injury maintenanceQuestionable
MINNaz Reid · right shoulder; injury maintenanceQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTari Eason · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
MIN·HOU
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
117.6
points / game
114.8
114.3
points allowed / game
109.8
47−33
season record
51−29
25−15
home record
29−10
22−18
away record
22−19
L1
streak
W8
4−6
last 10
8−2
48.1
FG%
48.0
37.1
3P%
36.9
44.3
rebounds / game
48.0
26.0
assists / game
25.4
14.9
turnovers / game
15.5
49.9
points in paint / game
52.5

Rating Trend

MIN · HOU · 157 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Mar 25at MINMIN 110 − 108
Jan 16at HOUHOU 110 − 105
Feb 21, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 115
Feb 6, 2025at MINMIN 127 − 114
Dec 27, 2024at HOUMIN 113 − 112
Nov 26, 2024at MINHOU 117 − 111
Apr 2, 2024at MINMIN 113 − 106
Feb 4, 2024at MINMIN 111 − 90
Jan 5, 2024at HOUMIN 122 − 95
Jan 23, 2023at HOUHOU 119 − 114

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 8at ORL120 − 132L
Apr 7at IND124 − 104W
Apr 5vs CHA108 − 122L
Apr 3at PHI103 − 115L
Apr 2at DET108 − 113L
Mar 30at DAL124 − 94W
Mar 28vs DET87 − 109L
Mar 25vs HOU110 − 108W
Mar 22at BOS102 − 92W
Mar 20vs POR104 − 108L

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
Apr 9vs PHI113 − 102W
Apr 7at PHX119 − 105W
Apr 5at GS117 − 116W
Apr 3vs UTAH140 − 106W
Apr 1vs MIL119 − 113W
Mar 31vs NY111 − 94W
Mar 29at NO134 − 102W
Mar 27at MEM119 − 109W
Mar 25at MIN108 − 110L
Mar 23at CHI124 − 132L