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Timberwolves at Pacers

NBA · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final MIN 124 – IND 104
← NBA / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN35283922124
IND27262427104
Team box
MIN·IND
46-89
field goals
35-73
17-41
3-pointers
9-26
15-16
free throws
25-31
39
rebounds
34
27
assists
24
20
turnovers
23
54
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ayo DosunmuMIN332451
Bones HylandMIN211947
Julius RandleMIN281924
Ethan ThompsonIND301741
Naz ReidMIN241721
Obi ToppinIND221432

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +31
MIN +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 4 · MIN 31lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 67%, IND 33% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
MIN by 6.3
Expected score
MIN 119.3 – 113.0 IND
Expected total
232.3
TimberwolvesThe matchupPacers
−202Our fair odds+202
119.3Expected points113.0
+0.41Power rating−0.52
117.5Points / game112.5
114.2Allowed / game120.7
48.0FG%45.8
37.03P%35.8
44.5Rebounds / game41.7
46−32Season record18−60
5−5Last 103−7
Anthony Edwards · Jaden McDanielsOutAaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Pascal Siakam

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · IND chance
Our model fair66.9%33.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−20267%————
INDIndiana Pacers+20233%————
SpreadMIN by 6.3
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−6.3our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+6.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.3
Over232.3our total————
Under232.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 6.3 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%
← MIN wins byIND wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more58%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more42%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.3 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FJulius Randlestarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GKobe Brownstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·IND
Apr 5 vs CHA
last game
Apr 5 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 6, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; injury maintenanceOut
MINJaden McDaniels · left knee; patella tendinopathyOut
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · cervical; strainOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · n/a; thoracic & lumbar injury managementOut
INDIvica Zubac · right rib; fractureOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · left ankle; sprainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · bilateral hamstring; injury managementOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDBen Sheppard · right hip; sprainQuestionable
INDJarace Walker · sacral; contusionQuestionable
INDObi Toppin · right foot; injury managementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
MIN·IND
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.52
117.5
points / game
112.5
114.2
points allowed / game
120.7
46−32
season record
18−60
25−15
home record
11−27
21−17
away record
7−33
L3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
48.0
FG%
45.8
37.0
3P%
35.8
44.5
rebounds / game
41.7
26.0
assists / game
27.5
14.8
turnovers / game
14.3
49.9
points in paint / game
45.9

Rating Trend

MIN · IND · 154 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 2−7
Oct 26, 2025at MINMIN 114 − 110
Mar 24, 2025at INDIND 119 − 103
Mar 17, 2025at MININD 132 − 130
Mar 7, 2024at INDMIN 113 − 111
Dec 16, 2023at MINMIN 127 − 109
Dec 7, 2022at MINMIN 121 − 115
Nov 23, 2022at INDMIN 115 − 101
Feb 13, 2022at INDMIN 129 − 120
Nov 29, 2021at MINMIN 100 − 98

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 5vs CHA108 − 122L
Apr 3at PHI103 − 115L
Apr 2at DET108 − 113L
Mar 30at DAL124 − 94W
Mar 28vs DET87 − 109L
Mar 25vs HOU110 − 108W
Mar 22at BOS102 − 92W
Mar 20vs POR104 − 108L
Mar 18vs UTAH147 − 111W
Mar 17vs PHX116 − 104W

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 5at CLE108 − 117L
Apr 3at CHA108 − 129L
Apr 1at CHI145 − 126W
Mar 29vs MIA135 − 118W
Mar 27vs LAC113 − 114L
Mar 25vs LAL130 − 137L
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L