bayesRatings

76ers at Rockets

NBA · Thursday, Apr 9 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final PHI 102 – HOU 113
← NBA / Apr 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI26301729102
HOU35382317113
Team box
PHI·HOU
38-85
field goals
42-93
11-32
3-pointers
11-32
15-23
free throws
18-26
47
rebounds
53
21
assists
21
16
turnovers
15
48
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU382975
Tyrese MaxeyPHI332435
VJ EdgecombePHI402068
Quentin GrimesPHI262020
Amen ThompsonHOU421954
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU341950

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +28
PHI +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 28 · PHI 2lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 30%, HOU 70% · Updated Apr 9

Expected margin
HOU by 7.6
Expected score
HOU 116.1 – 108.5 PHI
Expected total
224.6
76ersThe matchupRockets
+228Our fair odds−228
108.5Expected points116.1
−0.14Power rating+0.48
116.1Points / game114.8
116.5Allowed / game109.9
46.3FG%48.0
34.63P%36.9
43.4Rebounds / game48.0
43−36Season record50−29
6−4Last 108−2
Cameron Payne · Joel Embiid
Johni BroomeOutFred VanVleet · Steven Adams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · HOU chance
Our model fair30.5%69.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+22830%————
HOUHouston Rockets−22870%————
SpreadHOU by 7.6
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+7.6our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−7.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.6
Over224.6our total————
Under224.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 7.6 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%
← PHI wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more60%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more45%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.6 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
CAdem Bonastarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·HOU
Apr 6 at SA
last game
Apr 7 at PHX
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 9, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHICameron Payne · right hamstring; strainOut
PHIJoel Embiid · n/a; illnessOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTari Eason · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
PHI·HOU
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
116.1
points / game
114.8
116.5
points allowed / game
109.9
43−36
season record
50−29
22−18
home record
28−10
21−18
away record
22−19
L2
streak
W7
6−4
last 10
8−2
46.3
FG%
48.0
34.6
3P%
36.9
43.4
rebounds / game
48.0
24.7
assists / game
25.4
13.7
turnovers / game
15.5
49.9
points in paint / game
52.5

Rating Trend

PHI · HOU · 156 days
Philadelphia 76ersHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 3−6
Jan 22at PHIPHI 128 − 122
Mar 17, 2025at HOUHOU 144 − 137
Nov 27, 2024at PHIHOU 122 − 115
Jan 15, 2024at PHIPHI 124 − 115
Dec 29, 2023at HOUPHI 131 − 127
Feb 13, 2023at PHIPHI 123 − 104
Dec 5, 2022at HOUHOU 132 − 123
Jan 10, 2022at HOUPHI 111 − 91
Jan 3, 2022at PHIPHI 133 − 113

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 6at SA102 − 115L
Apr 4vs DET93 − 116L
Apr 3vs MIN115 − 103W
Apr 1at WSH153 − 131W
Mar 30at MIA109 − 119L
Mar 28at CHA118 − 114W
Mar 25vs CHI157 − 137W
Mar 23vs OKC103 − 123L
Mar 21at UTAH126 − 116W
Mar 19at SAC139 − 118W

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Apr 7at PHX119 − 105W
Apr 5at GS117 − 116W
Apr 3vs UTAH140 − 106W
Apr 1vs MIL119 − 113W
Mar 31vs NY111 − 94W
Mar 29at NO134 − 102W
Mar 27at MEM119 − 109W
Mar 25at MIN108 − 110L
Mar 23at CHI124 − 132L
Mar 21vs MIA123 − 122W