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Pelicans at Timberwolves

NBA · Sunday, Apr 12 · 7:30 PM CT · Target Center · Final NO 126 – MIN 132
← NBA / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO24353136126
MIN34392435132
Team box
NO·MIN
45-107
field goals
45-89
5-21
3-pointers
10-37
31-38
free throws
32-43
52
rebounds
47
20
assists
32
9
turnovers
11
72
points in paint
68
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jeremiah FearsNO4136105
Derik QueenNO4130224
Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN352645
Joan BeringerMIN3124132
Micah PeavyNO412143
Zyon PullinMIN311935

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +16
NO +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 16 · NO 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 23%, MIN 77% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
MIN by 9.9
Expected score
MIN 120.2 – 110.3 NO
Expected total
230.6
PelicansThe matchupTimberwolves
+343Our fair odds−343
110.3Expected points120.2
−0.62Power rating+0.41
115.4Points / game117.8
119.9Allowed / game114.5
46.6FG%48.2
34.63P%37.3
43.8Rebounds / game44.0
26−55Season record48−33
1−9Last 105−5
Bryce McGowens · Dejounte Murray
Herbert Jones · Karlo Matkovic
Saddiq BeyOut (5 each)Anthony Edwards · Ayo Dosunmu
Bones Hyland · Jaden McDaniels
Julius Randle

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · MIN chance
Our model fair22.6%77.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+34323%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−34377%————
SpreadMIN by 9.9
NONew Orleans Pelicans+9.9our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−9.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.6
Over230.6our total————
Under230.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 9.9 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 51 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 52 points: <1%
← NO wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more66%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more51%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.6 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GMicah Peavystarted
GJordan Hawkinsstarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
CJosh Odurostarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GJaylen Clarkstarted
GTerrence Shannon Jr.started
FJoe Inglesstarted
FJoan Beringerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·MIN
Apr 10 at BOS
last game
Apr 10 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 12, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NODejounte Murray · left hand; contusionOut
NOHerbert Jones · restOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · low back; injury managementOut
NOSaddiq Bey · restOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right ankle; sprainOut
NOYves Missi · right hand/finger; sprainOut
NOZion Williamson · right knee; injury managementOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; injury maintenanceOut
MINAyo Dosunmu · right calf; injury maintenanceOut
MINBones Hyland · right hip; injury maintenanceOut
MINJaden McDaniels · left knee; injury maintenanceOut
MINJulius Randle · right hand; injury maintenanceOut
MINKyle Anderson · right knee; injury maintenanceOut
MINMike Conley · restOut
MINNaz Reid · right shoulder; injury maintenanceOut
MINRudy Gobert · restOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
NO·MIN
−0.62
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
115.4
points / game
117.8
119.9
points allowed / game
114.5
26−55
season record
48−33
17−24
home record
25−15
9−31
away record
23−18
L1
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
5−5
46.6
FG%
48.2
34.6
3P%
37.3
43.8
rebounds / game
44.0
25.2
assists / game
26.0
14.2
turnovers / game
14.8
57.5
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

NO · MIN · 158 days
New Orleans PelicansMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Feb 6at MINNO 119 − 115
Dec 4, 2025at NOMIN 125 − 116
Dec 2, 2025at NOMIN 149 − 142
Mar 21, 2025at MINMIN 134 − 93
Mar 19, 2025at MINNO 119 − 115
Jan 7, 2025at NOMIN 104 − 97
Jan 3, 2024at MINNO 117 − 106
Dec 11, 2023at NONO 121 − 107
Nov 18, 2023at NOMIN 121 − 120
Nov 8, 2023at MINMIN 122 − 101

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Apr 10at BOS118 − 144L
Apr 7vs UTAH156 − 137W
Apr 5vs ORL108 − 112L
Apr 3at SAC113 − 117L
Apr 2at POR106 − 118L
Mar 29vs HOU102 − 134L
Mar 27at TOR106 − 119L
Mar 26at DET108 − 129L
Mar 24at NY116 − 121L
Mar 21vs CLE106 − 111L

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 10at HOU136 − 132W
Apr 8at ORL120 − 132L
Apr 7at IND124 − 104W
Apr 5vs CHA108 − 122L
Apr 3at PHI103 − 115L
Apr 2at DET108 − 113L
Mar 30at DAL124 − 94W
Mar 28vs DET87 − 109L
Mar 25vs HOU110 − 108W
Mar 22at BOS102 − 92W