bayesRatings

Jazz at Pelicans

NBA · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final UTAH 137 – NO 156
← NBA / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH34352741137
NO24375045156
Team box
UTAH·NO
53-104
field goals
61-106
10-32
3-pointers
14-34
21-24
free throws
20-23
41
rebounds
48
38
assists
32
16
turnovers
17
78
points in paint
90
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jeremiah FearsNO384056
Jordan PooleNO323424
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH433178
Bez MbengUTAH482633
Jordan HawkinsNO232564
Micah PeavyNO362042

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +29
UTAH +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 29 · UTAH 11lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 34%, NO 66% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
NO by 6.0
Expected score
NO 124.8 – 118.8 UTAH
Expected total
243.5
JazzThe matchupPelicans
+195Our fair odds−195
118.8Expected points124.8
−1.08Power rating−0.62
117.1Points / game114.8
125.9Allowed / game119.4
46.6FG%46.5
34.63P%34.6
43.6Rebounds / game43.7
21−58Season record25−54
1−9Last 102−8
Elijah Harkless · Isaiah Collier
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jusuf Nurkic
Keyonte GeorgeOutBryce McGowens · Dejounte Murray
Karlo Matkovic · Trey Murphy III

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · NO chance
Our model fair33.9%66.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+19534%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans−19566%————
SpreadNO by 6.0
UTAHUtah Jazz+6our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans−6our margin————
Totalwe expect 243.5
Over243.5our total————
Under243.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Pelicans by 6.0 expected
Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 5 or more56%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 10 or more41%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

243.5 expected
192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 233.567%
Total over 243.548%
Total over 253.531%
Total from 234 to 25336%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GBez Mbengstarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted
COscar Tshiebwestarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GJordan Poolestarted
GMicah Peavystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FKevon Looneystarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·NO
Apr 5 at OKC
last game
Apr 5 vs ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 7, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · left hamstring; strainOut
UTAHIsaiah Collier · left hamstring; strainOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right hamstring; strainOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHAce Bailey · right knee; contusionDoubtful
UTAHKyle Filipowski · low back; injury managementProbable
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NODejounte Murray · left hand; contusionOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · low back; injury managementOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right ankle; sprainOut
NOJordan Hawkins · n/a; illnessQuestionable
NOYves Missi · right hand; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
UTAH·NO
−1.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.62
117.1
points / game
114.8
125.9
points allowed / game
119.4
21−58
season record
25−54
13−27
home record
16−24
8−31
away record
9−30
L9
streak
L8
1−9
last 10
2−8
46.6
FG%
46.5
34.6
3P%
34.6
43.6
rebounds / game
43.7
29.4
assists / game
25.1
15.5
turnovers / game
14.2
52.0
points in paint / game
57.1

Rating Trend

UTAH · NO · 154 days
Utah JazzNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 7−3
Feb 28at UTAHNO 115 − 105
Feb 26at UTAHNO 129 − 118
Mar 2, 2025at UTAHNO 128 − 121
Jan 20, 2025at NONO 123 − 119
Jan 17, 2025at NONO 136 − 123
Jan 23, 2024at NONO 153 − 124
Dec 28, 2023at NONO 112 − 105
Nov 27, 2023at UTAHUTAH 114 − 112
Nov 25, 2023at UTAHUTAH 105 − 100
Dec 15, 2022at UTAHUTAH 132 − 129

UTAH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Apr 5at OKC111 − 146L
Apr 3at HOU106 − 140L
Apr 1vs DEN117 − 130L
Mar 30vs CLE113 − 122L
Mar 28at PHX109 − 134L
Mar 27at DEN129 − 135L
Mar 25vs WSH110 − 133L
Mar 23vs TOR127 − 143L
Mar 21vs PHI116 − 126L
Mar 19vs MIL128 − 96W

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Apr 5vs ORL108 − 112L
Apr 3at SAC113 − 117L
Apr 2at POR106 − 118L
Mar 29vs HOU102 − 134L
Mar 27at TOR106 − 119L
Mar 26at DET108 − 129L
Mar 24at NY116 − 121L
Mar 21vs CLE106 − 111L
Mar 19vs LAC105 − 99W
Mar 18vs LAC124 − 109W