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Magic at Pelicans

NBA · Sunday, Apr 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final ORL 112 – NO 108
← NBA / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL29232931112
NO28322820108
Team box
ORL·NO
40-93
field goals
35-84
7-33
3-pointers
10-31
25-36
free throws
28-36
57
rebounds
47
27
assists
18
13
turnovers
15
48
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Saddiq BeyNO393261
Desmond BaneORL342764
Paolo BancheroORL3823166
Jeremiah FearsNO371937
Yves MissiNO4018133
Zion WilliamsonNO281772

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +15
ORL +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 15 · ORL 7lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 59%, NO 41% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
ORL by 2.5
Expected score
ORL 115.5 – 113.0 NO
Expected total
228.5
MagicThe matchupPelicans
−143Our fair odds+143
115.5Expected points113.0
+0.01Power rating−0.57
115.4Points / game114.9
115.4Allowed / game119.4
46.4FG%46.6
34.13P%34.7
43.1Rebounds / game43.7
41−36Season record25−53
3−7Last 103−7
Alex Morales · Anthony Black
Colin Castleton · Jett Howard
Jonathan IsaacOutBryce McGowens · Dejounte Murray
Karlo Matkovic · Trey Murphy III

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · NO chance
Our model fair58.9%41.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic−14359%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+14341%————
SpreadORL by 2.5
ORLOrlando Magic−2.5our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.5
Over228.5our total————
Under228.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 2.5 expected
Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%
← ORL wins byNO wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more47%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more32%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.5 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
CYves Missistarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·NO
Apr 3 at DAL
last game
Apr 3 at SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 5, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLJett Howard · left ankle; sprainOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NODejounte Murray · left hand; contusionOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · low back; spasmsOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
ORL·NO
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.57
115.4
points / game
114.9
115.4
points allowed / game
119.4
41−36
season record
25−53
24−16
home record
16−23
17−20
away record
9−30
W1
streak
L7
3−7
last 10
3−7
46.4
FG%
46.6
34.1
3P%
34.7
43.1
rebounds / game
43.7
26.4
assists / game
25.2
14.1
turnovers / game
14.2
50.8
points in paint / game
57.2

Rating Trend

ORL · NO · 152 days
Orlando MagicNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NO 1−8
Jan 11at ORLORL 128 − 118
Mar 13, 2025at NOORL 113 − 93
Nov 8, 2024at ORLORL 115 − 88
Apr 3, 2024at NOORL 117 − 108
Mar 21, 2024at ORLORL 121 − 106
Feb 27, 2023at NOORL 101 − 93
Jan 20, 2023at ORLORL 123 − 110
Mar 9, 2022at NOORL 108 − 102
Dec 23, 2021at ORLNO 110 − 104

ORL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 3at DAL138 − 127W
Apr 1vs ATL101 − 130L
Mar 31vs PHX115 − 111W
Mar 29at TOR87 − 139L
Mar 26vs SAC121 − 117W
Mar 24at CLE131 − 136L
Mar 23vs IND126 − 128L
Mar 21vs LAL104 − 105L
Mar 19at CHA111 − 130L
Mar 17vs OKC108 − 113L

NO · Last 10

3−7 · streak L7
Apr 3at SAC113 − 117L
Apr 2at POR106 − 118L
Mar 29vs HOU102 − 134L
Mar 27at TOR106 − 119L
Mar 26at DET108 − 129L
Mar 24at NY116 − 121L
Mar 21vs CLE106 − 111L
Mar 19vs LAC105 − 99W
Mar 18vs LAC124 − 109W
Mar 16vs DAL129 − 111W