bayesRatings

Trail Blazers at Spurs

NBA · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 8:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final POR 95 – SA 114
← NBA / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR2421203095
SA36292128114
Team box
POR·SA
33-94
field goals
41-75
11-47
3-pointers
12-30
18-23
free throws
20-29
38
rebounds
42
24
assists
27
9
turnovers
17
38
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Deni AvdijaPOR322233
De'Aaron FoxSA342139
Julian ChampagnieSA301973
Victor WembanyamaSA3417143
Dylan HarperSA261731
Stephon CastleSA331535

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +28
POR +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 28 · POR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 25%, SA 75% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
SA by 8.8
Expected score
SA 118.7 – 109.9 POR
Expected total
228.6
Trail BlazersThe matchupSpurs
+295Our fair odds−295
109.9Expected points118.7
−0.04Power rating+0.81
115.5Points / game119.7
115.8Allowed / game111.7
45.4FG%48.4
34.23P%35.8
46.0Rebounds / game47.0
42−40 · 1−3 postSeason record62−21 · 3−1 post
5−5Last 107−3
Damian LillardOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · SA chance
Our model fair25.3%74.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+29525%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−29575%————
SpreadSA by 8.8
PORPortland Trail Blazers+8.8our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−8.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.6
Over228.6our total————
Under228.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 8.8 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 51 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 50 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 49 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%
← POR wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more63%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more48%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.6 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GScoot Hendersonstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·SA
Apr 26 vs SA
last game
Apr 26 at POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 28, 5:00 PM ET
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
POR·SA
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.81
115.5
points / game
119.7
115.8
points allowed / game
111.7
42−40 · 1−3 post
season record
62−21 · 3−1 post
24−17
home record
32−8
18−23
away record
30−13
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
45.4
FG%
48.4
34.2
3P%
35.8
46.0
rebounds / game
47.0
25.1
assists / game
28.1
17.3
turnovers / game
13.4
48.3
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

POR · SA · 169 days
Portland Trail BlazersSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 7−3
Apr 26at PORSA 114 − 93post
Apr 24at PORSA 120 − 108post
Apr 21at SAPOR 106 − 103post
Apr 19at SASA 111 − 98post
Apr 8at SASA 112 − 101
Jan 3at SAPOR 115 − 110
Nov 26, 2025at PORSA 115 − 102
Apr 6, 2025at PORPOR 120 − 109
Dec 21, 2024at SASA 114 − 94
Dec 13, 2024at PORSA 118 − 116

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 26vs SA93 − 114L
Apr 24vs SA108 − 120L
Apr 21at SA106 − 103W
Apr 19at SA98 − 111L
Apr 12vs SAC122 − 110W
Apr 10vs LAC116 − 97W
Apr 8at SA101 − 112L
Apr 6at DEN132 − 137L
Apr 2vs NO118 − 106W
Mar 31at LAC114 − 104W

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 26at POR114 − 93W
Apr 24at POR120 − 108W
Apr 21vs POR103 − 106L
Apr 19vs POR111 − 98W
Apr 12vs DEN118 − 128L
Apr 10vs DAL139 − 120W
Apr 8vs POR112 − 101W
Apr 6vs PHI115 − 102W
Apr 4at DEN134 − 136L
Apr 2at LAC118 − 99W