bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Spurs

NBA · Monday, May 4 · 8:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final MIN 104 – SA 102
← NBA / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN24212435104
SA23222730102
Team box
MIN·SA
41-90
field goals
39-87
10-26
3-pointers
10-36
12-21
free throws
14-18
46
rebounds
47
20
assists
24
13
turnovers
14
52
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julius RandleMIN4121102
Dylan HarperSA291844
Anthony EdwardsMIN251833
Stephon CastleSA281755
Julian ChampagnieSA321770
Jaden McDanielsMIN361652

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +9
MIN +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 7 · MIN 9lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 36%, SA 64% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
SA by 4.4
Expected score
SA 117.2 – 112.8 MIN
Expected total
229.9
TimberwolvesThe matchupSpurs
+179Our fair odds−179
112.8Expected points117.2
+0.47Power rating+0.81
118.0Points / game119.7
114.6Allowed / game111.7
48.2FG%48.4
37.13P%35.8
44.1Rebounds / game47.0
49−33 · 4−2 postSeason record62−21 · 4−1 post
7−3Last 107−3
Ayo Dosunmu · Donte DiVincenzoOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · SA chance
Our model fair35.9%64.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+17936%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−17964%————
SpreadSA by 4.4
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+4.4our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.9
Over229.9our total————
Under229.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 4.4 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%
← MIN wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more52%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more37%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.9 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.570%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.531%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GTerrence Shannon Jr.started
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·SA
Apr 30 vs DEN
last game
Apr 28 vs POR
3 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 4, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAyo Dosunmu · right calf; sorenessOut
MINDonte DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon; repairOut
MINAnthony Edwards · left knee; bone bruiseQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SACarter Bryant · right foot; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
MIN·SA
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
+0.81
118.0
points / game
119.7
114.6
points allowed / game
111.7
49−33 · 4−2 post
season record
62−21 · 4−1 post
26−15
home record
32−8
23−18
away record
30−13
W1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
7−3
48.2
FG%
48.4
37.1
3P%
35.8
44.1
rebounds / game
47.0
26.1
assists / game
28.1
14.8
turnovers / game
13.4
50.3
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

MIN · SA · 175 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 3−7
Jan 17at SASA 126 − 123
Jan 11at MINMIN 104 − 103
Nov 30, 2025at MINMIN 125 − 112
Mar 9, 2025at MINMIN 141 − 124
Dec 29, 2024at MINMIN 112 − 110
Dec 15, 2024at SAMIN 106 − 92
Nov 2, 2024at SASA 113 − 103
Feb 27, 2024at MINMIN 114 − 105
Jan 27, 2024at SASA 113 − 112
Dec 6, 2023at MINMIN 102 − 94

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 30vs DEN110 − 98W
Apr 27at DEN113 − 125L
Apr 25vs DEN112 − 96W
Apr 23vs DEN113 − 96W
Apr 20at DEN119 − 114W
Apr 18at DEN105 − 116L
Apr 12vs NO132 − 126W
Apr 10at HOU136 − 132W
Apr 8at ORL120 − 132L
Apr 7at IND124 − 104W

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Apr 28vs POR114 − 95W
Apr 26at POR114 − 93W
Apr 24at POR120 − 108W
Apr 21vs POR103 − 106L
Apr 19vs POR111 − 98W
Apr 12vs DEN118 − 128L
Apr 10vs DAL139 − 120W
Apr 8vs POR112 − 101W
Apr 6vs PHI115 − 102W
Apr 4at DEN134 − 136L