bayesRatings

Spurs at Thunder

NBA · Monday, May 18 · 7:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final SA 122 – OKC 115
← NBA / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OT2OTT
SA27242921714122
OKC2717292877115
Team box
SA·OKC
41-96
field goals
41-101
13-43
3-pointers
17-45
27-29
free throws
16-19
61
rebounds
40
25
assists
25
23
turnovers
15
52
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA4941243
Alex CarusoOKC323121
Jalen WilliamsOKC372673
Dylan HarperSA4724116
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC5124312
Stephon CastleSA4917611

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +10
SA +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT2OT
largest lead: OKC 3 · SA 10lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 31%, OKC 69% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
OKC by 6.0
Expected score
OKC 116.2 – 110.2 SA
Expected total
226.5
SpursThe matchupThunder
+222Our fair odds−222
110.2Expected points116.2
+0.84Power rating+1.40
119.7Points / game119.0
111.7Allowed / game107.9
48.4FG%48.5
35.83P%36.4
47.0Rebounds / game44.1
62−21 · 8−3 postSeason record64−18 · 8−0 post
7−3Last 108−2
—OutThomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · OKC chance
Our model fair31.1%68.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+22231%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−22269%————
SpreadOKC by 6.0
SASan Antonio Spurs+6our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−6our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.5
Over226.5our total————
Under226.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 6.0 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%
← SA wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more56%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more41%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
GDylan Harperstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·OKC
May 15 at MIN
last game
May 11 at LAL
2 days
days of rest
6 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 18, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADe'Aaron Fox · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
SALuke Kornet · left foot; sorenessQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
SA·OKC
+0.84
rating (0 = average)
+1.40
119.7
points / game
119.0
111.7
points allowed / game
107.9
62−21 · 8−3 post
season record
64−18 · 8−0 post
32−8
home record
34−8
30−13
away record
30−10
W2
streak
W8
7−3
last 10
8−2
48.4
FG%
48.5
35.8
3P%
36.4
47.0
rebounds / game
44.1
28.1
assists / game
25.8
13.4
turnovers / game
12.6
52.0
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

SA · OKC · 187 days
San Antonio SpursOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 4−6
Feb 4at SASA 116 − 106
Jan 13at OKCOKC 119 − 98
Dec 25, 2025at OKCSA 117 − 102
Dec 23, 2025at SASA 130 − 110
Dec 13, 2025at OKCSA 111 − 109
Mar 2, 2025at SAOKC 146 − 132
Nov 19, 2024at SASA 110 − 104
Oct 30, 2024at OKCOKC 105 − 93
Apr 10, 2024at OKCOKC 127 − 89
Feb 29, 2024at SASA 132 − 118

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 15at MIN139 − 109W
May 12vs MIN126 − 97W
May 10at MIN109 − 114L
May 8at MIN115 − 108W
May 6vs MIN133 − 95W
May 4vs MIN102 − 104L
Apr 28vs POR114 − 95W
Apr 26at POR114 − 93W
Apr 24at POR120 − 108W
Apr 21vs POR103 − 106L

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
May 11at LAL115 − 110W
May 9at LAL131 − 108W
May 7vs LAL125 − 107W
May 5vs LAL108 − 90W
Apr 27at PHX131 − 122W
Apr 25at PHX121 − 109W
Apr 22vs PHX120 − 107W
Apr 19vs PHX119 − 84W
Apr 12vs PHX103 − 135L
Apr 10at DEN107 − 127L