bayesRatings

Thunder at Lakers

NBA · Monday, May 11 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final OKC 115 – LAL 110
← NBA / May 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC21283135115
LAL26193926110
Team box
OKC·LAL
42-81
field goals
38-75
11-31
3-pointers
10-28
20-24
free throws
24-27
34
rebounds
37
19
assists
18
12
turnovers
19
44
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC393518
Ajay MitchellOKC332834
Austin ReavesLAL432776
Rui HachimuraLAL432552
LeBron JamesLAL4024123
Jaxson HayesLAL271851

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +12
OKC +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 5 · OKC 12lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 66%, LAL 34% · Updated May 11

Expected margin
OKC by 7.2
Expected score
OKC 115.6 – 108.5 LAL
Expected total
224.1
ThunderThe matchupLakers
−196Our fair odds+196
115.6Expected points108.5
+1.34Power rating+0.41
119.0Points / game116.3
107.9Allowed / game114.6
48.5FG%50.3
36.43P%36.1
44.1Rebounds / game41.0
64−18 · 7−0 postSeason record53−29 · 4−5 post
8−2Last 105−5
Jalen Williams · Thomas SorberOutLuka Doncic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · LAL chance
Our model fair66.3%33.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−19666%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+19634%————
SpreadOKC by 7.2
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−7.2our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.1
Over224.1our total————
Under224.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 7.2 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%
← OKC wins byLAL wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more60%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more44%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.1 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.568%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·LAL
May 9 at LAL
last game
May 9 vs OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 11, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCJalen Williams · left hamstring; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Los Angeles Lakers
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
OKC·LAL
+1.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
119.0
points / game
116.3
107.9
points allowed / game
114.6
64−18 · 7−0 post
season record
53−29 · 4−5 post
34−8
home record
28−13
30−10
away record
25−16
W7
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
5−5
48.5
FG%
50.3
36.4
3P%
36.1
44.1
rebounds / game
41.0
25.8
assists / game
25.9
12.6
turnovers / game
14.5
49.2
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

OKC · LAL · 182 days
Oklahoma City ThunderLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 1−9
May 9at LALOKC 131 − 108post
May 7at OKCOKC 125 − 107post
May 5at OKCOKC 108 − 90post
Apr 7at LALOKC 123 − 87
Apr 2at OKCOKC 139 − 96
Feb 9at LALOKC 119 − 110
Nov 12, 2025at OKCOKC 121 − 92
Apr 8, 2025at OKCOKC 136 − 120
Apr 6, 2025at OKCLAL 126 − 99
Nov 29, 2024at LALOKC 101 − 93

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
May 9at LAL131 − 108W
May 7vs LAL125 − 107W
May 5vs LAL108 − 90W
Apr 27at PHX131 − 122W
Apr 25at PHX121 − 109W
Apr 22vs PHX120 − 107W
Apr 19vs PHX119 − 84W
Apr 12vs PHX103 − 135L
Apr 10at DEN107 − 127L
Apr 8at LAC128 − 110W

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
May 9vs OKC108 − 131L
May 7at OKC107 − 125L
May 5at OKC90 − 108L
May 1at HOU98 − 78W
Apr 29vs HOU93 − 99L
Apr 26at HOU96 − 115L
Apr 24at HOU112 − 108W
Apr 21vs HOU101 − 94W
Apr 18vs HOU107 − 98W
Apr 12vs UTAH131 − 107W