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Rockets at Lakers

NBA · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final HOU 94 – LAL 101
← NBA / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU2625172694
LAL33212126101
Team box
HOU·LAL
36-89
field goals
33-72
7-29
3-pointers
13-28
15-19
free throws
22-28
42
rebounds
37
23
assists
21
15
turnovers
15
54
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LeBron JamesLAL392887
Marcus SmartLAL352527
Kevin DurantHOU412364
Luke KennardLAL422362
Alperen SengunHOU3520115
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU391861

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +15
HOU +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 15 · HOU 4lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 47%, LAL 53% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
HOU by 0.6
Expected score
HOU 111.8 – 111.2 LAL
Expected total
223.0
RocketsThe matchupLakers
+112Our fair odds−112
111.8Expected points111.2
+0.51Power rating+0.38
115.2Points / game116.3
110.0Allowed / game114.6
48.1FG%50.3
36.63P%36.1
48.1Rebounds / game41.0
52−30 · 0−1 postSeason record53−29 · 1−0 post
8−2Last 107−3
Fred VanVleet · Steven AdamsOut (2 each)Austin Reaves · Luka Doncic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · LAL chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+11247%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−11253%————
SpreadHOU by 0.6
HOUHouston Rockets−0.6our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.0
Over223.0our total————
Under223.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 0.6 expected
Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%
← HOU wins byLAL wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more41%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more28%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.0 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.568%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuke Kennardstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·LAL
Apr 18 at LAL
last game
Apr 18 vs HOU
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 21, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUKevin Durant · right knee; contusionQuestionable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAustin Reaves · left oblique; muscle strainOut
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
HOU·LAL
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
115.2
points / game
116.3
110.0
points allowed / game
114.6
52−30 · 0−1 post
season record
53−29 · 1−0 post
30−11
home record
28−13
22−19
away record
25−16
L1
streak
W4
8−2
last 10
7−3
48.1
FG%
50.3
36.6
3P%
36.1
48.1
rebounds / game
41.0
25.4
assists / game
25.9
15.4
turnovers / game
14.5
53.0
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

HOU · LAL · 162 days
Houston RocketsLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 7−3
Apr 18at LALLAL 107 − 98post
Mar 18at HOULAL 124 − 116
Mar 16at HOULAL 100 − 92
Dec 25, 2025at LALHOU 119 − 96
Apr 11, 2025at LALLAL 140 − 109
Mar 31, 2025at LALLAL 104 − 98
Jan 5, 2025at HOUHOU 119 − 115
Jan 29, 2024at HOUHOU 135 − 119
Dec 2, 2023at LALLAL 107 − 97
Nov 19, 2023at LALLAL 105 − 104

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 18at LAL98 − 107L
Apr 12vs MEM132 − 101W
Apr 10vs MIN132 − 136L
Apr 9vs PHI113 − 102W
Apr 7at PHX119 − 105W
Apr 5at GS117 − 116W
Apr 3vs UTAH140 − 106W
Apr 1vs MIL119 − 113W
Mar 31vs NY111 − 94W
Mar 29at NO134 − 102W

LAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Apr 18vs HOU107 − 98W
Apr 12vs UTAH131 − 107W
Apr 10vs PHX101 − 73W
Apr 9at GS119 − 103W
Apr 7vs OKC87 − 123L
Apr 5at DAL128 − 134L
Apr 2at OKC96 − 139L
Mar 31vs CLE127 − 113W
Mar 30vs WSH120 − 101W
Mar 27vs BKN116 − 99W