bayesRatings

Grizzlies at Rockets

NBA · Sunday, Apr 12 · 7:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final MEM 101 – HOU 132
← NBA / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM26192630101
HOU32343432132
Team box
MEM·HOU
39-95
field goals
48-105
13-49
3-pointers
14-49
10-10
free throws
22-30
37
rebounds
64
23
assists
23
13
turnovers
11
48
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Dariq WhiteheadMEM392641
Clint CapelaHOU2323131
Rayan RupertMEM4221125
Tari EasonHOU242083
Reed SheppardHOU261943
Javon SmallMEM261831

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +39
MEM +39
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 39 · MEM 4lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 23%, HOU 77% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
HOU by 9.9
Expected score
HOU 119.8 – 109.8 MEM
Expected total
229.6
GrizzliesThe matchupRockets
+333Our fair odds−333
109.8Expected points119.8
−0.52Power rating+0.48
114.8Points / game115.0
120.5Allowed / game110.1
45.8FG%48.1
35.43P%36.7
42.2Rebounds / game47.9
25−56Season record51−30
1−9Last 108−2
Brandon Clarke · Cam Spencer
Cedric Coward · GG Jackson
Ja MorantOut (5 each)Alperen Sengun · Amen Thompson
Fred VanVleet · Jabari Smith Jr.
Kevin Durant

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · HOU chance
Our model fair23.1%76.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+33323%————
HOUHouston Rockets−33377%————
SpreadHOU by 9.9
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+9.9our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−9.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.6
Over229.6our total————
Under229.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 9.9 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 52 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 51 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 50 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 52 points: <1%
← MEM wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more66%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more51%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.6 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GJahmai Mashackstarted
GRayan Rupertstarted
FTaj Gibsonstarted
FDariq Whiteheadstarted
FToby Okanistarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FJae'Sean Tatestarted
FTari Easonstarted
CClint Capelastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·HOU
Apr 10 at UTAH
last game
Apr 10 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 12, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCam Spencer · low back; injury managementOut
MEMCedric Coward · low back; sorenessOut
MEMGG Jackson · left knee; injury managementOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTaylor Hendricks · right thumb; sprainOut
and 6 more
Houston Rockets
HOUAlperen Sengun · restOut
HOUAmen Thompson · restOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJabari Smith Jr. · restOut
HOUKevin Durant · restOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
MEM·HOU
−0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
114.8
points / game
115.0
120.5
points allowed / game
110.1
25−56
season record
51−30
14−27
home record
29−11
11−29
away record
22−19
L7
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
8−2
45.8
FG%
48.1
35.4
3P%
36.7
42.2
rebounds / game
47.9
27.9
assists / game
25.4
15.1
turnovers / game
15.4
48.6
points in paint / game
52.9

Rating Trend

MEM · HOU · 158 days
Memphis GrizzliesHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 8−2
Mar 27at MEMHOU 119 − 109
Jan 26at HOUHOU 108 − 99
Nov 5, 2025at MEMHOU 124 − 109
Jan 30, 2025at MEMMEM 120 − 119
Jan 13, 2025at HOUHOU 120 − 118
Jan 9, 2025at MEMHOU 119 − 115
Oct 25, 2024at HOUHOU 128 − 108
Feb 14, 2024at MEMMEM 121 − 113
Dec 15, 2023at MEMHOU 103 − 96
Dec 13, 2023at HOUHOU 117 − 104

MEM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Apr 10at UTAH101 − 147L
Apr 8at DEN119 − 136L
Apr 6vs CLE126 − 142L
Apr 5at MIL115 − 131L
Apr 3vs TOR96 − 128L
Apr 1vs NY119 − 130L
Mar 30vs PHX105 − 131L
Mar 28vs CHI125 − 124W
Mar 27vs HOU109 − 119L
Mar 25vs SA98 − 123L

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Apr 10vs MIN132 − 136L
Apr 9vs PHI113 − 102W
Apr 7at PHX119 − 105W
Apr 5at GS117 − 116W
Apr 3vs UTAH140 − 106W
Apr 1vs MIL119 − 113W
Mar 31vs NY111 − 94W
Mar 29at NO134 − 102W
Mar 27at MEM119 − 109W
Mar 25at MIN108 − 110L