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Lakers at Warriors

NBA · Thursday, Apr 9 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final LAL 119 – GS 103
← NBA / Apr 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL28252937119
GS23262430103
Team box
LAL·GS
49-80
field goals
41-81
16-29
3-pointers
9-30
5-8
free throws
12-12
33
rebounds
38
37
assists
24
19
turnovers
19
48
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LeBron JamesLAL3226811
Deandre AytonLAL312151
Nate WilliamsGS351743
Brandin PodziemskiGS241711
Jake LaRaviaLAL311674
Luke KennardLAL321428

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +27
LAL +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 4 · LAL 27lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 52%, GS 48% · Updated Apr 9

Expected margin
GS by 0.1
Expected score
GS 114.2 – 114.2 LAL
Expected total
228.4
LakersThe matchupWarriors
−109Our fair odds+109
114.2Expected points114.2
+0.32Power rating+0.02
116.3Points / game114.8
115.4Allowed / game115.0
50.1FG%46.2
35.73P%35.5
41.1Rebounds / game42.4
50−29Season record37−42
6−4Last 104−6
Austin Reaves · Jaxson Hayes
Luka Doncic · Marcus SmartOutAl Horford · Jimmy Butler III
Kristaps Porzingis · Moses Moody
Quinten Post

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · GS chance
Our model fair52.2%47.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−10952%————
GSGolden State Warriors+10948%————
SpreadGS by 0.1
LALLos Angeles Lakers+0.1our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.4
Over228.4our total————
Under228.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 0.1 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%
← LAL wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more41%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more27%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.4 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuke Kennardstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GNate Williamsstarted
GPat Spencerstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·GS
Apr 7 vs OKC
last game
Apr 7 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 9, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAustin Reaves · left oblique; muscle strainOut
LALJaxson Hayes · left foot; sorenessOut
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut
LALMarcus Smart · right ankle; contusionOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · general; illness management / right knee sorenessOut
GSMoses Moody · left patellar tendon; surgeryOut
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementOut
GSStephen Curry · right knee; injury managementOut
GSWill Richard · bilateral low back; strainOut
GSGui Santos · right pelvic;Questionable
GSCharles Bassey · left ankle; sprainProbable
GSLJ Cryer · general; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
LAL·GS
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
116.3
points / game
114.8
115.4
points allowed / game
115.0
50−29
season record
37−42
26−13
home record
22−18
24−16
away record
15−24
L3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
50.1
FG%
46.2
35.7
3P%
35.5
41.1
rebounds / game
42.4
25.6
assists / game
29.0
14.4
turnovers / game
15.7
52.0
points in paint / game
44.8

Rating Trend

LAL · GS · 156 days
Los Angeles LakersGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 5−5
Feb 28at GSLAL 129 − 101
Feb 7at LALLAL 105 − 99
Oct 21, 2025at LALGS 119 − 109
Apr 3, 2025at LALGS 123 − 116
Feb 6, 2025at LALLAL 120 − 112
Jan 25, 2025at GSLAL 118 − 108
Dec 25, 2024at GSLAL 115 − 113
Apr 9, 2024at LALGS 134 − 120
Mar 16, 2024at LALGS 128 − 121
Feb 22, 2024at GSGS 128 − 110

LAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Apr 7vs OKC87 − 123L
Apr 5at DAL128 − 134L
Apr 2at OKC96 − 139L
Mar 31vs CLE127 − 113W
Mar 30vs WSH120 − 101W
Mar 27vs BKN116 − 99W
Mar 25at IND137 − 130W
Mar 23at DET110 − 113L
Mar 21at ORL105 − 104W
Mar 19at MIA134 − 126W

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 7vs SAC110 − 105W
Apr 5vs HOU116 − 117L
Apr 2vs CLE111 − 118L
Apr 1vs SA113 − 127L
Mar 29at DEN93 − 116L
Mar 27vs WSH131 − 126W
Mar 25vs BKN109 − 106W
Mar 23at DAL137 − 131W
Mar 21at ATL110 − 126L
Mar 20at DET101 − 115L