bayesRatings

Kings at Warriors

NBA · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final SAC 105 – GS 110
← NBA / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC26272824105
GS25411925110
Team box
SAC·GS
41-87
field goals
37-82
11-31
3-pointers
17-38
12-17
free throws
19-24
41
rebounds
39
22
assists
27
15
turnovers
17
56
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Anthony MeltonGS292145
Brandin PodziemskiGS302013
Killian HayesSAC321844
Maxime RaynaudSAC261771
Stephen CurryGS251752
Doug McDermottSAC291642

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +16
SAC +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 16 · SAC 3lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 26%, GS 74% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
GS by 9.5
Expected score
GS 119.4 – 109.9 SAC
Expected total
229.3
KingsThe matchupWarriors
+288Our fair odds−288
109.9Expected points119.4
−0.83Power rating+0.02
110.9Points / game114.8
121.2Allowed / game115.1
46.7FG%46.2
33.93P%35.3
42.1Rebounds / game42.5
21−58Season record36−42
3−7Last 103−7
De'Andre Hunter · DeMar DeRozan
Domantas Sabonis · Drew Eubanks
Isaiah StevensOut (5 each)Al Horford · Gui Santos
Jimmy Butler III · Moses Moody
Quinten Post

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · GS chance
Our model fair25.8%74.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+28826%————
GSGolden State Warriors−28874%————
SpreadGS by 9.5
SACSacramento Kings+9.5our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−9.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.3
Over229.3our total————
Under229.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 9.5 expected
Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 51 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 52 points: <1%
← SAC wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more65%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more50%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.3 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GDaeqwon Plowdenstarted
GDevin Carterstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
Golden State Warriors
GDe'Anthony Meltonstarted
GPat Spencerstarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FMalevy Leonsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·GS
Apr 5 vs LAC
last game
Apr 5 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 7, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDeMar DeRozan · right hamstring; sorenessOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDrew Eubanks · left thumb; ucl repairOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACPatrick Baldwin Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
SACRussell Westbrook · right toe; injury managementOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right soleus; strainOut
GSGui Santos · right pelvic; contusionOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl; surgeryOut
GSMoses Moody · left patellar tendon; surgeryOut
GSQuinten Post · right foot; injury managementOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
GSLJ Cryer · general; illnessQuestionable
GSStephen Curry · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
SAC·GS
−0.83
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
110.9
points / game
114.8
121.2
points allowed / game
115.1
21−58
season record
36−42
14−26
home record
21−18
7−32
away record
15−24
L1
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
3−7
46.7
FG%
46.2
33.9
3P%
35.3
42.1
rebounds / game
42.5
25.6
assists / game
29.0
14.3
turnovers / game
15.7
50.4
points in paint / game
44.9

Rating Trend

SAC · GS · 154 days
Sacramento KingsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 5−5
Jan 9at GSGS 137 − 103
Nov 5, 2025at SACSAC 121 − 116
Mar 13, 2025at GSGS 130 − 104
Feb 21, 2025at SACGS 132 − 108
Jan 22, 2025at SACSAC 123 − 117
Jan 5, 2025at GSSAC 129 − 99
Jan 25, 2024at GSSAC 134 − 133
Nov 28, 2023at SACSAC 124 − 123
Nov 1, 2023at GSGS 102 − 101
Oct 27, 2023at SACGS 122 − 114

SAC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 5vs LAC109 − 138L
Apr 3vs NO117 − 113W
Apr 1at TOR123 − 115W
Mar 29at BKN99 − 116L
Mar 28at ATL113 − 123L
Mar 26at ORL117 − 121L
Mar 24at CHA90 − 134L
Mar 22vs BKN126 − 122W
Mar 19vs PHI118 − 139L
Mar 17vs SA104 − 132L

GS · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Apr 5vs HOU116 − 117L
Apr 2vs CLE111 − 118L
Apr 1vs SA113 − 127L
Mar 29at DEN93 − 116L
Mar 27vs WSH131 − 126W
Mar 25vs BKN109 − 106W
Mar 23at DAL137 − 131W
Mar 21at ATL110 − 126L
Mar 20at DET101 − 115L
Mar 18at BOS99 − 120L