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Lakers at Rockets

NBA · Friday, May 1 · 8:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final LAL 98 – HOU 78
← NBA / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL2326222798
HOU1813242378
Team box
LAL·HOU
36-89
field goals
28-80
12-28
3-pointers
5-28
14-24
free throws
17-24
54
rebounds
45
19
assists
13
11
turnovers
14
46
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LeBron JamesLAL372878
Rui HachimuraLAL352162
Amen ThompsonHOU451883
Alperen SengunHOU3817111
Austin ReavesLAL311532
Tari EasonHOU371452

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +29
LAL +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 5 · LAL 29lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 42%, HOU 58% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
HOU by 3.9
Expected score
HOU 113.2 – 109.3 LAL
Expected total
222.6
LakersThe matchupRockets
+141Our fair odds−141
109.3Expected points113.2
+0.40Power rating+0.49
116.3Points / game115.2
114.6Allowed / game110.0
50.3FG%48.1
36.13P%36.6
41.0Rebounds / game48.1
53−29 · 3−2 postSeason record52−30 · 2−3 post
6−4Last 106−4
Luka DoncicOutFred VanVleet · Kevin Durant
Steven Adams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+14142%————
HOUHouston Rockets−14158%————
SpreadHOU by 3.9
LALLos Angeles Lakers+3.9our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.6
Over222.6our total————
Under222.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 3.9 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%
← LAL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more51%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more36%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.6 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.569%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·HOU
Apr 29 vs HOU
last game
Apr 29 at LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 1, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALLuka Doncic · left hamstring; strainOut
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUKevin Durant · left ankle; sprainOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
LAL·HOU
+0.40
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
116.3
points / game
115.2
114.6
points allowed / game
110.0
53−29 · 3−2 post
season record
52−30 · 2−3 post
28−13
home record
30−11
25−16
away record
22−19
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
50.3
FG%
48.1
36.1
3P%
36.6
41.0
rebounds / game
48.1
25.9
assists / game
25.4
14.5
turnovers / game
15.4
52.0
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

LAL · HOU · 172 days
Los Angeles LakersHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 3−7
Apr 29at LALHOU 99 − 93post
Apr 26at HOUHOU 115 − 96post
Apr 24at HOULAL 112 − 108post
Apr 21at LALLAL 101 − 94post
Apr 18at LALLAL 107 − 98post
Mar 18at HOULAL 124 − 116
Mar 16at HOULAL 100 − 92
Dec 25, 2025at LALHOU 119 − 96
Apr 11, 2025at LALLAL 140 − 109
Mar 31, 2025at LALLAL 104 − 98

LAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 29vs HOU93 − 99L
Apr 26at HOU96 − 115L
Apr 24at HOU112 − 108W
Apr 21vs HOU101 − 94W
Apr 18vs HOU107 − 98W
Apr 12vs UTAH131 − 107W
Apr 10vs PHX101 − 73W
Apr 9at GS119 − 103W
Apr 7vs OKC87 − 123L
Apr 5at DAL128 − 134L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 29at LAL99 − 93W
Apr 26vs LAL115 − 96W
Apr 24vs LAL108 − 112L
Apr 21at LAL94 − 101L
Apr 18at LAL98 − 107L
Apr 12vs MEM132 − 101W
Apr 10vs MIN132 − 136L
Apr 9vs PHI113 − 102W
Apr 7at PHX119 − 105W
Apr 5at GS117 − 116W