bayesRatings

Seahawks at Cardinals

NFL · Thursday, Sep 25 · 7:15 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final SEA 23 – ARI 20
← NFL / Sep 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA773623
ARI3031420
Team box
SEA·ARI
384
total yards
253
229
passing yards
164
155
rushing yards
89
20
first downs
18
6-13
third downs
6-15
1
turnovers
2
32:24
time of possession
27:36
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA18/2624210
Kyler MurrayARI27/4120022
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIISEA19810
Kyler MurrayARI5410
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA4790
Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI6661

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +14
SEA +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 3 · SEA 14lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 49%, ARI 51% · Updated Sep 25, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 21.0 – 20.4 ARI
Expected total
41.4
SeahawksThe matchupCardinals
+103Our fair odds−103
21.0Expected points20.4
+0.36Power rating+0.05
29.3Points / game20.7
15.7Allowed / game17.0
315Total yards / game276
5.6Yards / play4.9
219Passing yards / game165
2−1Season record2−1
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ARI chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks+10349%————
ARIArizona Cardinals−10351%————
SpreadSEA by 0.6
SEASeattle Seahawks−0.6our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.4
Over41.4our total————
Under41.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 0.6 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 9%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 7%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%
← SEA wins byARI wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more48%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more30%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.4 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.568%
Total over 41.548%
Total over 48.528%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 70% completions, 221 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
ARIKyler Murray · last 3 games: 67% completions, 181 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ARI
Sep 21, 2025 vs NO
last game
Sep 21, 2025 at SF
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
SEA·ARI
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
29.3
points / game
20.7
15.7
points allowed / game
17.0
2−1
season record
2−1
1−1
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
1−1
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
315
total yards / game
276
5.6
yards / play
4.9
219
passing yards / game
165
96
rushing yards / game
111
19.0
first downs / game
17.0
1.7
turnovers / game
0.3

Rating Trend

SEA · ARI · 7 days
Seattle SeahawksArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ARI 1−7
Dec 8, 2024at ARISEA 30 − 18
Nov 24, 2024at SEASEA 16 − 6
Jan 7, 2024at ARISEA 21 − 20
Oct 22, 2023at SEASEA 20 − 10
Nov 6, 2022at ARISEA 31 − 21
Oct 16, 2022at SEASEA 19 − 9
Jan 9, 2022at ARISEA 38 − 30
Nov 21, 2021at SEAARI 23 − 13

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W
Dec 26, 2024at CHI6 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs MIN24 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs GB13 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at ARI30 − 18W
Dec 1, 2024at NYJ26 − 21W
Nov 24, 2024vs ARI16 − 6W

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 21, 2025at SF15 − 16L
Sep 14, 2025vs CAR27 − 22W
Sep 7, 2025at NO20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs SF47 − 24W
Dec 28, 2024at LAR9 − 13L
Dec 22, 2024at CAR30 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs NE30 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs SEA18 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024at MIN22 − 23L
Nov 24, 2024at SEA6 − 16L