bayesRatings

Ravens at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 3:25 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final BAL 20 – KC 37
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BAL733720
KC31710737
Team box
BAL·KC
360
total yards
382
194
passing yards
264
166
rushing yards
118
18
first downs
24
3-10
third downs
5-15
2
turnovers
0
25:15
time of possession
34:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Lamar JacksonBAL14/2014711
Patrick MahomesKC25/3727040
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Justice HillBAL3761
Xavier WorthyKC2380
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay FlowersBAL7740
Xavier WorthyKC5830

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +24
BAL +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 24 · BAL 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, KC 52% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 2.0
Expected score
BAL 25.9 – 23.9 KC
Expected total
49.8
RavensThe matchupChiefs
+109Our fair odds−109
25.9Expected points23.9
+0.74Power rating+0.49
37.0Points / game20.0
32.0Allowed / game18.7
331Total yards / game316
6.4Yards / play5.3
208Passing yards / game208
1−2Season record1−2
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · KC chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens+10948%————
KCKansas City Chiefs−10952%————
SpreadBAL by 2.0
BALBaltimore Ravens−2our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.8
Over49.8our total————
Under49.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 2.0 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 9%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%
← BAL wins byKC wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more52%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more33%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.8 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.567%
Total over 49.548%
Total over 56.532%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 72% completions, 241 yds/game, 9 TD, 0 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 59% completions, 223 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·KC
Sep 22, 2025 vs DET
last game
Sep 21, 2025 at NYG
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
BAL·KC
+0.74
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
37.0
points / game
20.0
32.0
points allowed / game
18.7
1−2
season record
1−2
1−1
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
1−1
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
331
total yards / game
316
6.4
yards / play
5.3
208
passing yards / game
208
123
rushing yards / game
108
18.0
first downs / game
19.0
0.7
turnovers / game
0.3

Rating Trend

BAL · KC · 8 days
Baltimore RavensKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · KC 2−1
Sep 5, 2024at KCKC 27 − 20
Jan 28, 2024at BALKC 17 − 10post
Sep 19, 2021at BALBAL 36 − 35

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 22, 2025vs DET30 − 38L
Sep 14, 2025vs CLE41 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L
Jan 11, 2025vs PIT28 − 14W
Jan 4, 2025vs CLE35 − 10W
Dec 25, 2024at HOU31 − 2W
Dec 21, 2024vs PIT34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at NYG35 − 14W
Dec 1, 2024vs PHI19 − 24L

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L
Jan 26, 2025vs BUF32 − 29W
Jan 18, 2025vs HOU23 − 14W
Jan 5, 2025at DEN0 − 38L
Dec 25, 2024at PIT29 − 10W
Dec 21, 2024vs HOU27 − 19W
Dec 15, 2024at CLE21 − 7W