bayesRatings

Panthers at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final CAR 13 – NE 42
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CAR600713
NE7217742
Team box
CAR·NE
326
total yards
307
197
passing yards
203
129
rushing yards
104
21
first downs
16
5-14
third downs
3-9
0
turnovers
0
35:14
time of possession
24:46
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR18/3015010
Drake MayeNE14/1720320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chuba HubbardCAR10490
Rhamondre StevensonNE9380
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tetairoa McMillanCAR4620
Stefon DiggsNE61010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +36
CAR +36
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 36 · CAR 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 45%, NE 55% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
NE by 2.6
Expected score
NE 21.4 – 18.8 CAR
Expected total
40.2
PanthersThe matchupPatriots
+124Our fair odds−124
18.8Expected points21.4
−0.69Power rating−0.78
20.7Points / game20.0
17.7Allowed / game22.7
277Total yards / game346
4.3Yards / play5.4
186Passing yards / game246
1−2Season record1−2
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · NE chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers+12445%————
NENew England Patriots−12455%————
SpreadNE by 2.6
CARCarolina Panthers+2.6our margin————
NENew England Patriots−2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.2
Over40.2our total————
Under40.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 2.6 expected
Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 8%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 3%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%
← CAR wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more50%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more34%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.2 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.547%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 61% completions, 201 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 73% completions, 262 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·NE
Sep 21, 2025 vs ATL
last game
Sep 21, 2025 vs PIT
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
CAR·NE
−0.69
rating (0 = average)
−0.78
20.7
points / game
20.0
17.7
points allowed / game
22.7
1−2
season record
1−2
1−0
home record
0−2
0−2
away record
1−0
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
2−8
277
total yards / game
346
4.3
yards / play
5.4
186
passing yards / game
246
91
rushing yards / game
100
18.7
first downs / game
20.7
2.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

CAR · NE · 8 days
Carolina PanthersNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NE 1−0
Nov 7, 2021at CARNE 24 − 6

CAR · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 21, 2025vs ATL30 − 0W
Sep 14, 2025at ARI22 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025at JAX10 − 26L
Jan 5, 2025at ATL44 − 38W
Dec 29, 2024at TB14 − 48L
Dec 22, 2024vs ARI36 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024vs DAL14 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at PHI16 − 22L
Dec 1, 2024vs TB23 − 26L
Nov 24, 2024vs KC27 − 30L

NE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Sep 21, 2025vs PIT14 − 21L
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W
Dec 28, 2024vs LAC7 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at BUF21 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024at ARI17 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024vs IND24 − 25L
Nov 24, 2024at MIA15 − 34L
Nov 17, 2024vs LAR22 − 28L