bayesRatings

Bears at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 3:25 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final CHI 25 – LV 24
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI367925
LV777324
Team box
CHI·LV
271
total yards
357
202
passing yards
117
69
rushing yards
240
16
first downs
17
7-16
third downs
2-8
1
turnovers
4
33:10
time of possession
26:50
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI22/3721211
Geno SmithLV14/2111723
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI14381
Ashton JeantyLV211381
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rome OdunzeCHI4691
Brock BowersLV5460

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +8
CHI +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LV 8 · CHI 3lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 49%, LV 51% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
LV by 0.7
Expected score
LV 21.2 – 20.4 CHI
Expected total
41.6
BearsThe matchupRaiders
+106Our fair odds−106
20.4Expected points21.2
−0.31Power rating−0.58
25.3Points / game17.7
31.0Allowed / game24.7
347Total yards / game320
5.7Yards / play5.1
234Passing yards / game248
1−2Season record1−2
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · LV chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+10649%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders−10651%————
SpreadLV by 0.7
CHIChicago Bears+0.7our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.6
Over41.6our total————
Under41.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Las Vegas Raiders by 0.7 expected
Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 5%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 9%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 7%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%
← CHI wins byLV wins by →
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 3 or more45%
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 7 or more29%
Las Vegas Raiders wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.6 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.569%
Total over 41.548%
Total over 48.529%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 63% completions, 238 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 63% completions, 277 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·LV
Sep 21, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Sep 21, 2025 at WSH
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
CHI·LV
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.58
25.3
points / game
17.7
31.0
points allowed / game
24.7
1−2
season record
1−2
1−1
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
3−7
347
total yards / game
320
5.7
yards / play
5.1
234
passing yards / game
248
113
rushing yards / game
72
19.3
first downs / game
17.7
1.0
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

CHI · LV · 8 days
Chicago BearsLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LV 0−2
Oct 22, 2023at CHICHI 30 − 12
Oct 10, 2021at LVCHI 20 − 9

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W
Dec 26, 2024vs SEA3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2024vs DET17 − 34L
Dec 16, 2024at MIN12 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at SF13 − 38L
Nov 28, 2024at DET20 − 23L
Nov 24, 2024vs MIN27 − 30L

LV · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L
Dec 29, 2024at NO25 − 10W
Dec 22, 2024vs JAX19 − 14W
Dec 16, 2024vs ATL9 − 15L
Dec 8, 2024at TB13 − 28L
Nov 29, 2024at KC17 − 19L
Nov 24, 2024vs DEN19 − 29L