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Browns at Lions

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Ford Field · Final CLE 10 – DET 34
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE703010
DET71301434
Team box
CLE·DET
249
total yards
277
170
passing yards
168
79
rushing yards
109
16
first downs
16
3-14
third downs
6-14
3
turnovers
1
31:44
time of possession
28:16
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe FlaccoCLE16/3418402
Jared GoffDET16/2716821
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Quinshon JudkinsCLE21821
Jahmyr GibbsDET15911
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Isaiah BondCLE3580
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET7702

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +24
CLE +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 24 · CLE 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 12%, DET 88% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 19.5
Expected score
DET 36.6 – 17.1 CLE
Expected total
53.7
BrownsThe matchupLions
+747Our fair odds−747
17.1Expected points36.6
−0.70Power rating+1.21
15.3Points / game34.3
22.7Allowed / game26.0
290Total yards / game394
4.3Yards / play6.4
204Passing yards / game245
1−2Season record2−1
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · DET chance
Our model fair11.8%88.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+74712%————
DETDetroit Lions−74788%————
SpreadDET by 19.5
CLECleveland Browns+19.5our margin————
DETDetroit Lions−19.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.7
Over53.7our total————
Under53.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 19.5 expected
Cleveland Browns by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 1%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 6%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 6%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 29 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 36 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 44 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 45 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 46 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 47 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 48 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 49 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 50 points: <1%
← CLE wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more91%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more83%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more77%
Within 3 points either way9%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.7 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.566%
Total over 53.548%
Total over 60.532%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEJoe Flacco · last 3 games: 61% completions, 210 yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 78% completions, 254 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·DET
Sep 21, 2025 vs GB
last game
Sep 22, 2025 at BAL
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
CLE·DET
−0.70
rating (0 = average)
+1.21
15.3
points / game
34.3
22.7
points allowed / game
26.0
1−2
season record
2−1
1−1
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
7−3
290
total yards / game
394
4.3
yards / play
6.4
204
passing yards / game
245
87
rushing yards / game
149
18.0
first downs / game
21.7
1.7
turnovers / game
0.3

Rating Trend

CLE · DET · 8 days
Cleveland BrownsDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DET 0−1
Nov 21, 2021at CLECLE 13 − 10

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Sep 21, 2025vs GB13 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L
Dec 29, 2024vs MIA3 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at CIN6 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024vs KC7 − 21L
Dec 8, 2024at PIT14 − 27L
Dec 2, 2024at DEN32 − 41L
Nov 21, 2024vs PIT24 − 19W

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 22, 2025at BAL38 − 30W
Sep 14, 2025vs CHI52 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at GB13 − 27L
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIN31 − 9W
Dec 30, 2024at SF40 − 34W
Dec 22, 2024at CHI34 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024vs BUF42 − 48L
Dec 5, 2024vs GB34 − 31W
Nov 28, 2024vs CHI23 − 20W