bayesRatings

Packers at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 7:20 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · Final GB 40 – DAL 40
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
GB76717340
DAL016714340
Team box
GB·DAL
489
total yards
436
325
passing yards
319
164
rushing yards
117
32
first downs
26
10-14
third downs
4-11
1
turnovers
0
35:33
time of possession
34:27
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB31/4333730
Dak PrescottDAL31/4031930
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Josh JacobsGB22862
Javonte WilliamsDAL20851
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Josh JacobsGB4710
George PickensDAL81342

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +13
GB +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DAL 3 · GB 13lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 62%, DAL 38% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 6.6
Expected score
GB 27.6 – 21.0 DAL
Expected total
48.6
PackersThe matchupCowboys
−164Our fair odds+164
27.6Expected points21.0
+0.58Power rating−0.29
21.3Points / game24.7
14.7Allowed / game30.7
300Total yards / game394
5.3Yards / play5.7
202Passing yards / game269
2−1Season record1−2
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · DAL chance
Our model fair62.1%37.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers−16462%————
DALDallas Cowboys+16438%————
SpreadGB by 6.6
GBGreen Bay Packers−6.6our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys+6.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.6
Over48.6our total————
Under48.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 6.6 expected
Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 8%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 6%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%
← GB wins byDAL wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more65%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more47%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.6 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 68% completions, 221 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 71% completions, 267 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·DAL
Sep 21, 2025 at CLE
last game
Sep 21, 2025 at CHI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
GB·DAL
+0.58
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
21.3
points / game
24.7
14.7
points allowed / game
30.7
2−1
season record
1−2
2−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
300
total yards / game
394
5.3
yards / play
5.7
202
passing yards / game
269
98
rushing yards / game
125
16.7
first downs / game
25.7
0.3
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

GB · DAL · 8 days
Green Bay PackersDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · DAL 0−2
Jan 14, 2024at DALGB 48 − 32post
Nov 13, 2022at GBGB 31 − 28

GB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 21, 2025at CLE10 − 13L
Sep 11, 2025vs WSH27 − 18W
Sep 7, 2025vs DET27 − 13W
Jan 12, 2025at PHI10 − 22L
Jan 5, 2025vs CHI22 − 24L
Dec 29, 2024at MIN25 − 27L
Dec 23, 2024vs NO34 − 0W
Dec 15, 2024at SEA30 − 13W
Dec 5, 2024at DET31 − 34L
Nov 28, 2024vs MIA30 − 17W

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 21, 2025at CHI14 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NYG40 − 37W
Sep 4, 2025at PHI20 − 24L
Jan 5, 2025vs WSH19 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at PHI7 − 41L
Dec 22, 2024vs TB26 − 24W
Dec 15, 2024at CAR30 − 14W
Dec 9, 2024vs CIN20 − 27L
Nov 28, 2024vs NYG27 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024at WSH34 − 26W