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Colts at Rams

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final IND 20 – LAR 27
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND3701020
LAR31001427
Team box
IND·LAR
333
total yards
462
248
passing yards
360
85
rushing yards
102
17
first downs
24
4-12
third downs
4-12
3
turnovers
1
28:16
time of possession
31:44
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Daniel JonesIND24/3326212
Matthew StaffordLAR29/4137530
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND17760
Kyren WilliamsLAR13770
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Adonai MitchellIND3960
Puka NacuaLAR131701

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAR +7
IND +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAR 7 · IND 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 38%, LAR 62% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 2.2
Expected score
LAR 25.4 – 23.1 IND
Expected total
48.5
ColtsThe matchupRams
+162Our fair odds−162
23.1Expected points25.4
+0.15Power rating+0.34
34.3Points / game24.3
18.7Allowed / game20.3
419Total yards / game364
6.7Yards / play6.0
265Passing yards / game237
3−0Season record2−1
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · LAR chance
Our model fair38.2%61.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+16238%————
LARLos Angeles Rams−16262%————
SpreadLAR by 2.2
INDIndianapolis Colts+2.2our margin————
LARLos Angeles Rams−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.5
Over48.5our total————
Under48.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 2.2 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 8%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%
← IND wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more49%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more33%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.5 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.530%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 72% completions, 272 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 66% completions, 246 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·LAR
Sep 21, 2025 at TEN
last game
Sep 21, 2025 at PHI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
IND·LAR
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
34.3
points / game
24.3
18.7
points allowed / game
20.3
3−0
season record
2−1
2−0
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
1−1
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
419
total yards / game
364
6.7
yards / play
6.0
265
passing yards / game
237
153
rushing yards / game
127
25.0
first downs / game
20.7
0.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

IND · LAR · 8 days
Indianapolis ColtsLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LAR 2−0
Oct 1, 2023at INDLAR 29 − 23
Sep 19, 2021at INDLAR 27 − 24

IND · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W
Dec 29, 2024at NYG33 − 45L
Dec 22, 2024vs TEN38 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024at DEN13 − 31L
Dec 1, 2024at NE25 − 24W
Nov 24, 2024vs DET6 − 24L
Nov 17, 2024at NYJ28 − 27W

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 21, 2025at PHI26 − 33L
Sep 14, 2025at TEN33 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025vs HOU14 − 9W
Jan 19, 2025at PHI22 − 28L
Jan 13, 2025vs MIN27 − 9W
Jan 5, 2025vs SEA25 − 30L
Dec 28, 2024vs ARI13 − 9W
Dec 22, 2024at NYJ19 − 9W
Dec 12, 2024at SF12 − 6W
Dec 8, 2024vs BUF44 − 42W