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Jaguars at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 3:05 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final JAX 26 – SF 21
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
JAX0179026
SF338721
Team box
JAX·SF
325
total yards
389
174
passing yards
306
151
rushing yards
83
18
first downs
22
4-14
third downs
8-13
0
turnovers
4
32:31
time of possession
27:29
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX21/3117410
Brock PurdySF22/3830922
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX191241
Christian McCaffreySF17490
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX5490
Christian McCaffreySF6921

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +12
JAX +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 3 · JAX 12lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 30%, SF 70% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
SF by 5.5
Expected score
SF 24.2 – 18.7 JAX
Expected total
42.9
JaguarsThe matchup49ers
+230Our fair odds−230
18.7Expected points24.2
−0.32Power rating+0.25
23.3Points / game19.7
17.0Allowed / game16.3
356Total yards / game361
5.4Yards / play5.4
215Passing yards / game271
2−1Season record3−0
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · SF chance
Our model fair30.3%69.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+23030%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−23070%————
SpreadSF by 5.5
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+5.5our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−5.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.9
Over42.9our total————
Under42.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 5.5 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 45 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%
← JAX wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more58%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more43%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more34%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.9 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.570%
Total over 42.549%
Total over 49.530%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 56% completions, 224 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 72% completions, 322 yds/game, 7 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·SF
Sep 21, 2025 vs HOU
last game
Sep 21, 2025 vs ARI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
JAX·SF
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
23.3
points / game
19.7
17.0
points allowed / game
16.3
2−1
season record
3−0
2−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
2−0
W1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
4−6
356
total yards / game
361
5.4
yards / play
5.4
215
passing yards / game
271
142
rushing yards / game
90
19.0
first downs / game
22.0
1.3
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

JAX · SF · 8 days
Jacksonville JaguarsSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · SF 2−0
Nov 12, 2023at JAXSF 34 − 3
Nov 21, 2021at JAXSF 30 − 10

JAX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L
Dec 29, 2024vs TEN20 − 13W
Dec 22, 2024at LV14 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024vs NYJ25 − 32L
Dec 8, 2024at TEN10 − 6W
Dec 1, 2024vs HOU20 − 23L
Nov 17, 2024at DET6 − 52L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L
Dec 30, 2024vs DET34 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at MIA17 − 29L
Dec 12, 2024vs LAR6 − 12L
Dec 8, 2024vs CHI38 − 13W
Dec 1, 2024at BUF10 − 35L
Nov 24, 2024at GB10 − 38L