bayesRatings

Chargers at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final LAC 18 – NYG 21
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC0108018
NYG768021
Team box
LAC·NYG
338
total yards
250
186
passing yards
89
152
rushing yards
161
17
first downs
20
4-12
third downs
7-15
2
turnovers
0
24:32
time of possession
35:28
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC23/4120312
Jaxson DartNYG13/2011110
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Omarion HamptonLAC121281
Cam SkatteboNYG25790
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Quentin JohnstonLAC8981
Darius SlaytonNYG3440

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +11
LAC +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 11 · LAC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 73%, NYG 27% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 10.1
Expected score
LAC 23.9 – 13.8 NYG
Expected total
37.8
ChargersThe matchupGiants
−272Our fair odds+272
23.9Expected points13.8
+0.42Power rating−1.03
23.3Points / game17.3
16.7Allowed / game27.7
362Total yards / game339
5.6Yards / play5.4
270Passing yards / game243
3−0Season record0−3
7−3Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · NYG chance
Our model fair73.1%26.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers−27273%————
NYGNew York Giants+27227%————
SpreadLAC by 10.1
LACLos Angeles Chargers−10.1our margin————
NYGNew York Giants+10.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.8
Over37.8our total————
Under37.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 10.1 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 5%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 1%New York Giants by 2 points: 2%New York Giants by 3 points: 4%New York Giants by 4 points: 1%New York Giants by 5 points: 1%New York Giants by 6 points: 2%New York Giants by 7 points: 2%New York Giants by 8 points: 1%New York Giants by 9 points: <1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 16 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%
← LAC wins byNYG wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more72%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more58%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more51%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.8 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.570%
Total over 37.549%
Total over 44.529%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 67% completions, 287 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
NYGJaxson Dart · no recent games on recordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·NYG
Sep 21, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Sep 21, 2025 vs KC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
LAC·NYG
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
−1.03
23.3
points / game
17.3
16.7
points allowed / game
27.7
3−0
season record
0−3
2−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−2
W3
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
1−9
362
total yards / game
339
5.6
yards / play
5.4
270
passing yards / game
243
92
rushing yards / game
96
22.0
first downs / game
19.3
1.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

LAC · NYG · 8 days
Los Angeles ChargersNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NYG 0−1
Dec 12, 2021at LACLAC 37 − 21

LAC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Sep 21, 2025vs DEN23 − 20W
Sep 15, 2025at LV20 − 9W
Sep 5, 2025vs KC27 − 21W
Jan 11, 2025at HOU12 − 32L
Jan 5, 2025at LV34 − 20W
Dec 28, 2024at NE40 − 7W
Dec 19, 2024vs DEN34 − 27W
Dec 15, 2024vs TB17 − 40L
Dec 8, 2024at KC17 − 19L
Dec 1, 2024at ATL17 − 13W

NYG · Last 10

1−9 · streak L4
Sep 21, 2025vs KC9 − 22L
Sep 14, 2025at DAL37 − 40L
Sep 7, 2025at WSH6 − 21L
Jan 5, 2025at PHI13 − 20L
Dec 29, 2024vs IND45 − 33W
Dec 22, 2024at ATL7 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs BAL14 − 35L
Dec 8, 2024vs NO11 − 14L
Nov 28, 2024at DAL20 − 27L
Nov 24, 2024vs TB7 − 30L