bayesRatings

Vikings at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 8:30 AM CT · Croke Park · neutral site · Final MIN 21 – PIT 24
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN3301521
PIT777324
Team box
MIN·PIT
372
total yards
313
302
passing yards
182
70
rushing yards
131
23
first downs
19
4-14
third downs
4-10
2
turnovers
0
33:34
time of possession
26:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Carson WentzMIN30/4635022
Aaron RodgersPIT18/2220010
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jordan MasonMIN16570
Kenny GainwellPIT19992
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Justin JeffersonMIN101260
DK MetcalfPIT51261

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +18
MIN +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 18 · MIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 60%, PIT 40% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 4.7
Expected score
MIN 23.9 – 19.1 PIT
Expected total
43.0
VikingsThe matchupSteelers
−151Our fair odds+151
23.9Expected points19.1
+0.50Power rating+0.05
27.0Points / game24.0
18.7Allowed / game25.7
268Total yards / game247
5.2Yards / play4.5
146Passing yards / game184
2−1Season record2−1
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair60.1%39.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings−15160%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+15140%————
SpreadMIN by 4.7
MINMinnesota Vikings−4.7our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.0
Over43.0our total————
Under43.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 4.7 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 9%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 6%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%
← MIN wins byPIT wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more60%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more41%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.0 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.567%
Total over 43.546%
Total over 50.528%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINCarson Wentz · last 3 games: 67% completions, 97 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 65% completions, 195 yds/game, 7 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·PIT
Sep 21, 2025 vs CIN
last game
Sep 21, 2025 at NE
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
MIN·PIT
+0.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
27.0
points / game
24.0
18.7
points allowed / game
25.7
2−1
season record
2−1
1−1
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
2−0
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
268
total yards / game
247
5.2
yards / play
4.5
146
passing yards / game
184
122
rushing yards / game
63
15.3
first downs / game
16.3
1.7
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

MIN · PIT · 8 days
Minnesota VikingsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · PIT 0−1
Dec 9, 2021at MINMIN 36 − 28

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at DET9 − 31L
Dec 29, 2024vs GB27 − 25W
Dec 22, 2024at SEA27 − 24W
Dec 16, 2024vs CHI30 − 12W
Dec 8, 2024vs ATL42 − 21W
Dec 1, 2024vs ARI23 − 22W

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L
Jan 4, 2025vs CIN17 − 19L
Dec 25, 2024vs KC10 − 29L
Dec 21, 2024at BAL17 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024at PHI13 − 27L
Dec 8, 2024vs CLE27 − 14W
Dec 1, 2024at CIN44 − 38W