bayesRatings

Saints at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Sep 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium (Old) · Final NO 19 – BUF 31
← NFL / Sep 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO736319
BUF14071031
Team box
NO·BUF
298
total yards
356
109
passing yards
191
189
rushing yards
165
22
first downs
20
5-13
third downs
3-10
1
turnovers
1
28:39
time of possession
31:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Spencer RattlerNO18/2712610
Josh AllenBUF16/2220921
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Alvin KamaraNO15700
James Cook IIIBUF221171
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rashid ShaheedNO4470
Khalil ShakirBUF5691

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +12
NO +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 12 · NO 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 13%, BUF 87% · Updated Sep 28, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 17.8
Expected score
BUF 35.5 – 17.6 NO
Expected total
53.1
SaintsThe matchupBills
+679Our fair odds−679
17.6Expected points35.5
−0.78Power rating+1.02
15.7Points / game34.0
30.0Allowed / game23.7
302Total yards / game420
4.4Yards / play6.1
200Passing yards / game257
0−3Season record3−0
2−8Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · BUF chance
Our model fair12.8%87.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+67913%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−67987%————
SpreadBUF by 17.8
NONew Orleans Saints+17.8our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−17.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.1
Over53.1our total————
Under53.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 17.8 expected
New Orleans Saints by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 1%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 43 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 44 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 45 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 46 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 47 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 48 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 49 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 50 points: <1%
← NO wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more88%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more77%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more70%
Within 3 points either way12%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.1 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.564%
Total over 53.547%
Total over 60.531%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOSpencer Rattler · last 3 games: 67% completions, 213 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 70% completions, 252 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·BUF
Sep 21, 2025 at SEA
last game
Sep 18, 2025 vs MIA
6 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
NO·BUF
−0.78
rating (0 = average)
+1.02
15.7
points / game
34.0
30.0
points allowed / game
23.7
0−3
season record
3−0
0−2
home record
2−0
0−1
away record
1−0
L3
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
8−2
302
total yards / game
420
4.4
yards / play
6.1
200
passing yards / game
257
102
rushing yards / game
163
21.0
first downs / game
25.7
0.7
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

NO · BUF · 8 days
New Orleans SaintsBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · BUF 1−0
Nov 25, 2021at NOBUF 31 − 6

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Sep 21, 2025at SEA13 − 44L
Sep 14, 2025vs SF21 − 26L
Sep 7, 2025vs ARI13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025at TB19 − 27L
Dec 29, 2024vs LV10 − 25L
Dec 23, 2024at GB0 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs WSH19 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024at NYG14 − 11W
Dec 1, 2024vs LAR14 − 21L
Nov 17, 2024vs CLE35 − 14W

BUF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L
Jan 19, 2025vs BAL27 − 25W
Jan 12, 2025vs DEN31 − 7W
Jan 5, 2025at NE16 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024vs NYJ40 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024vs NE24 − 21W
Dec 15, 2024at DET48 − 42W